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icon for Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Patrick Paquet 44%

Stéphanie Martin 22%

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin 17%

Charles Hudon 1.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Patrick Paquet 44%

Stéphanie Martin 22%

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin 17%

Charles Hudon 1.7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Patrick Paquet

Patrick Paquet

$693 Vol.

44%

icon for Stéphanie Martin

Stéphanie Martin

$25 Vol.

22%

icon for Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

$53 Vol.

24%

icon for Charles Hudon

Charles Hudon

$873 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Vanier-Les Rivières riding features a tight multi-party contest for the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election following the retirement of incumbent CAQ MNA Mario Asselin.** Trader consensus prices Patrick Paquet (PCQ) highest at 43%, followed by Françoise Faverjon-Fortin (CAQ) at 24% and Stéphanie Martin (PQ) at 21.5%, with Charles Hudon (PLQ) far behind. Recent projections from 338Canada and Qc125 show the three leading parties clustered in the mid-20s percent range amid an open seat. PCQ momentum in the Quebec City region, paired with Paquet’s municipal experience and local name recognition, supports his edge, while Faverjon-Fortin’s business and governance background sustains CAQ residual support and Martin benefits from PQ resurgence. The September 17 nomination deadline and final weeks of campaigning on housing, healthcare access, and fiscal issues could widen or narrow the gap before advance polls and election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,643
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Vanier-Les Rivières riding features a tight multi-party contest for the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election following the retirement of incumbent CAQ MNA Mario Asselin.** Trader consensus prices Patrick Paquet (PCQ) highest at 43%, followed by Françoise Faverjon-Fortin (CAQ) at 24% and Stéphanie Martin (PQ) at 21.5%, with Charles Hudon (PLQ) far behind. Recent projections from 338Canada and Qc125 show the three leading parties clustered in the mid-20s percent range amid an open seat. PCQ momentum in the Quebec City region, paired with Paquet’s municipal experience and local name recognition, supports his edge, while Faverjon-Fortin’s business and governance background sustains CAQ residual support and Martin benefits from PQ resurgence. The September 17 nomination deadline and final weeks of campaigning on housing, healthcare access, and fiscal issues could widen or narrow the gap before advance polls and election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,643
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Patrick Paquet" at 44%, followed by "Françoise Faverjon-Fortin" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Patrick Paquet" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Françoise Faverjon-Fortin" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.