Recent polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the AfD between 40% and 43%, with the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey at 41% and INSA at 43%. This narrow range around the 42% threshold sustains competitive trader positioning, as modest shifts in turnout, undecided voters, or support for smaller parties like the Linke, SPD, or Greens could alter the final share. The AfD’s consistent lead over the CDU reflects eastern German voter priorities on migration and economic issues, while the established firewall against coalitions limits governing prospects regardless of seat totals. Late campaign events or mobilization efforts in the final hours remain the primary variables that could push results above or below the line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
54% chance
$23,492 Vol.
$23,492 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Over
54% chance
$23,492 Vol.
$23,492 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the AfD between 40% and 43%, with the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey at 41% and INSA at 43%. This narrow range around the 42% threshold sustains competitive trader positioning, as modest shifts in turnout, undecided voters, or support for smaller parties like the Linke, SPD, or Greens could alter the final share. The AfD’s consistent lead over the CDU reflects eastern German voter priorities on migration and economic issues, while the established firewall against coalitions limits governing prospects regardless of seat totals. Late campaign events or mobilization efforts in the final hours remain the primary variables that could push results above or below the line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$23,492End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the AfD between 40% and 43%, with the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey at 41% and INSA at 43%. This narrow range around the 42% threshold sustains competitive trader positioning, as modest shifts in turnout, undecided voters, or support for smaller parties like the Linke, SPD, or Greens could alter the final share. The AfD’s consistent lead over the CDU reflects eastern German voter priorities on migration and economic issues, while the established firewall against coalitions limits governing prospects regardless of seat totals. Late campaign events or mobilization efforts in the final hours remain the primary variables that could push results above or below the line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$23,492End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the AfD between 40% and 43%, with the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey at 41% and INSA at 43%. This narrow range around the 42% threshold sustains competitive trader positioning, as modest shifts in turnout, undecided voters, or support for smaller parties like the Linke, SPD, or Greens could alter the final share. The AfD’s consistent lead over the CDU reflects eastern German voter priorities on migration and economic issues, while the established firewall against coalitions limits governing prospects regardless of seat totals. Late campaign events or mobilization efforts in the final hours remain the primary variables that could push results above or below the line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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