Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a strong lead in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys showing him at 30-38% against Lula at 29-33%, often a technical tie or narrow edge that positions him for the plurality in Brazil’s largest electoral college. His July 25 Liberal Party convention in the state, backed by his father’s endorsement and international figures, has consolidated right-leaning support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only single-digit shares. Traders reflect this São Paulo-specific dynamic in the implied probabilities, distinguishing it from national trends where Lula holds a modest overall lead. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could shift margins before votes are counted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 85%
Lula 14.6%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
85%
Lula
15%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 85%
Lula 14.6%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,633 Vol.
85%
Lula
$6,420 Vol.
15%
Pablo Marçal
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,350 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a strong lead in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys showing him at 30-38% against Lula at 29-33%, often a technical tie or narrow edge that positions him for the plurality in Brazil’s largest electoral college. His July 25 Liberal Party convention in the state, backed by his father’s endorsement and international figures, has consolidated right-leaning support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only single-digit shares. Traders reflect this São Paulo-specific dynamic in the implied probabilities, distinguishing it from national trends where Lula holds a modest overall lead. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could shift margins before votes are counted.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a strong lead in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys showing him at 30-38% against Lula at 29-33%, often a technical tie or narrow edge that positions him for the plurality in Brazil’s largest electoral college. His July 25 Liberal Party convention in the state, backed by his father’s endorsement and international figures, has consolidated right-leaning support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only single-digit shares. Traders reflect this São Paulo-specific dynamic in the implied probabilities, distinguishing it from national trends where Lula holds a modest overall lead. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could shift margins before votes are counted.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a strong lead in São Paulo polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys showing him at 30-38% against Lula at 29-33%, often a technical tie or narrow edge that positions him for the plurality in Brazil’s largest electoral college. His July 25 Liberal Party convention in the state, backed by his father’s endorsement and international figures, has consolidated right-leaning support amid a fragmented field where candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register only single-digit shares. Traders reflect this São Paulo-specific dynamic in the implied probabilities, distinguishing it from national trends where Lula holds a modest overall lead. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks remain key variables that could shift margins before votes are counted.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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