Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round presidential voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, typically at 30-37% compared with Lula’s 29-38%, reflecting the state’s conservative voter base and alignment with right-leaning state figures such as Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. His July 2026 candidacy convention in São Paulo, featuring endorsements from international conservatives and a focus on security and anti-PT messaging, reinforced momentum among PL supporters. Lula maintains national leads in most aggregators but trails or ties in São Paulo surveys amid higher local rejection rates. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit support, with Pablo Marçal’s participation limited by eligibility proceedings. Trader consensus on a Flávio first-place finish in the state aligns with these persistent regional patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 85%
Lula 14.9%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
85%
Lula
15%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 85%
Lula 14.9%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,633 Vol.
85%
Lula
$6,420 Vol.
15%
Pablo Marçal
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,350 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round presidential voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, typically at 30-37% compared with Lula’s 29-38%, reflecting the state’s conservative voter base and alignment with right-leaning state figures such as Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. His July 2026 candidacy convention in São Paulo, featuring endorsements from international conservatives and a focus on security and anti-PT messaging, reinforced momentum among PL supporters. Lula maintains national leads in most aggregators but trails or ties in São Paulo surveys amid higher local rejection rates. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit support, with Pablo Marçal’s participation limited by eligibility proceedings. Trader consensus on a Flávio first-place finish in the state aligns with these persistent regional patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round presidential voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, typically at 30-37% compared with Lula’s 29-38%, reflecting the state’s conservative voter base and alignment with right-leaning state figures such as Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. His July 2026 candidacy convention in São Paulo, featuring endorsements from international conservatives and a focus on security and anti-PT messaging, reinforced momentum among PL supporters. Lula maintains national leads in most aggregators but trails or ties in São Paulo surveys amid higher local rejection rates. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit support, with Pablo Marçal’s participation limited by eligibility proceedings. Trader consensus on a Flávio first-place finish in the state aligns with these persistent regional patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round presidential voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, typically at 30-37% compared with Lula’s 29-38%, reflecting the state’s conservative voter base and alignment with right-leaning state figures such as Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. His July 2026 candidacy convention in São Paulo, featuring endorsements from international conservatives and a focus on security and anti-PT messaging, reinforced momentum among PL supporters. Lula maintains national leads in most aggregators but trails or ties in São Paulo surveys amid higher local rejection rates. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit support, with Pablo Marçal’s participation limited by eligibility proceedings. Trader consensus on a Flávio first-place finish in the state aligns with these persistent regional patterns ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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