Omar Aziz leads first-round polling averages for the Amazonas gubernatorial race at 26-34 percent, supported by his prior governorship, Senate tenure, and alliances including with President Lula, while current governor Roberto Cidade, Professora Maria do Carmo, and David Almeida remain in technical contention for second place at 15-22 percent each. High undecided shares, often exceeding 15 percent, and regional splits—Aziz stronger in the interior, tighter competition in Manaus—sustain the fragmented field ahead of the October 4 vote. Second-round simulations consistently show near-ties among the top contenders, reflecting voter volatility and limiting any single candidate’s implied win probability despite Aziz’s edge in current surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOmar Aziz 58%
Professora Maria do Carmo 25%
Roberto Cidade 15.6%
Gilberto Vasconcelos 1.0%
$25,498 Vol.
$25,498 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Omar Aziz
58%
Professora Maria do Carmo
25%
Roberto Cidade
16%
Gilberto Vasconcelos
1%
Cabo Daciolo
<1%
David Almeida
<1%
Isael Munduruku
<1%
Omar Aziz 58%
Professora Maria do Carmo 25%
Roberto Cidade 15.6%
Gilberto Vasconcelos 1.0%
$25,498 Vol.
$25,498 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Omar Aziz
$8,872 Vol.
58%
Professora Maria do Carmo
$5,367 Vol.
25%
Roberto Cidade
$4,178 Vol.
16%
Gilberto Vasconcelos
$1,851 Vol.
1%
Cabo Daciolo
$1,543 Vol.
<1%
David Almeida
$1,911 Vol.
<1%
Isael Munduruku
$1,776 Vol.
<1%
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Omar Aziz leads first-round polling averages for the Amazonas gubernatorial race at 26-34 percent, supported by his prior governorship, Senate tenure, and alliances including with President Lula, while current governor Roberto Cidade, Professora Maria do Carmo, and David Almeida remain in technical contention for second place at 15-22 percent each. High undecided shares, often exceeding 15 percent, and regional splits—Aziz stronger in the interior, tighter competition in Manaus—sustain the fragmented field ahead of the October 4 vote. Second-round simulations consistently show near-ties among the top contenders, reflecting voter volatility and limiting any single candidate’s implied win probability despite Aziz’s edge in current surveys.
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
Volume
$25,498End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Omar Aziz leads first-round polling averages for the Amazonas gubernatorial race at 26-34 percent, supported by his prior governorship, Senate tenure, and alliances including with President Lula, while current governor Roberto Cidade, Professora Maria do Carmo, and David Almeida remain in technical contention for second place at 15-22 percent each. High undecided shares, often exceeding 15 percent, and regional splits—Aziz stronger in the interior, tighter competition in Manaus—sustain the fragmented field ahead of the October 4 vote. Second-round simulations consistently show near-ties among the top contenders, reflecting voter volatility and limiting any single candidate’s implied win probability despite Aziz’s edge in current surveys.
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,498End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Omar Aziz leads first-round polling averages for the Amazonas gubernatorial race at 26-34 percent, supported by his prior governorship, Senate tenure, and alliances including with President Lula, while current governor Roberto Cidade, Professora Maria do Carmo, and David Almeida remain in technical contention for second place at 15-22 percent each. High undecided shares, often exceeding 15 percent, and regional splits—Aziz stronger in the interior, tighter competition in Manaus—sustain the fragmented field ahead of the October 4 vote. Second-round simulations consistently show near-ties among the top contenders, reflecting voter volatility and limiting any single candidate’s implied win probability despite Aziz’s edge in current surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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