Recent polling from June and July 2026 shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD), with Castro frequently leading first-preference votes while Júlio César and Ciro Nogueira trade positions in consolidated or second-vote scenarios. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira and the governing coalition’s backing for Castro and Júlio César have kept the second-place outcome fluid, as voters split preferences across the pair of vacancies. With the October election still weeks away and no major late shifts reported, traders assign comparable probabilities across the leading contenders for second place, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, alliance consolidation, and undecided voters that could separate the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Julio Cesar 35.6%
Ciro Nogueira 26%
Marcelo Castro 17.9%
Tiago Junqueira 3.8%
$38,984 Vol.
$38,984 Vol.
Julio Cesar
36%
Ciro Nogueira
26%
Marcelo Castro
23%
Tiago Junqueira
4%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 35.6%
Ciro Nogueira 26%
Marcelo Castro 17.9%
Tiago Junqueira 3.8%
$38,984 Vol.
$38,984 Vol.
Julio Cesar
36%
Ciro Nogueira
26%
Marcelo Castro
23%
Tiago Junqueira
4%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from June and July 2026 shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP), and Júlio César (PSD), with Castro frequently leading first-preference votes while Júlio César and Ciro Nogueira trade positions in consolidated or second-vote scenarios. High rejection for Ciro Nogueira and the governing coalition’s backing for Castro and Júlio César have kept the second-place outcome fluid, as voters split preferences across the pair of vacancies. With the October election still weeks away and no major late shifts reported, traders assign comparable probabilities across the leading contenders for second place, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, alliance consolidation, and undecided voters that could separate the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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