Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular vote lead near 29 percent while the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette has closed to within a few points at 24-27 percent, largely by drawing support from the Liberals. With the October 5 election underway after the writ drop in late August, the multi-party contest and vote splitting among federalist voters have created high uncertainty in seat outcomes. CAQ strength remains concentrated in suburban and regional ridings where it faces direct PQ challenges, making efficiency in those head-to-head races the decisive factor. Wide variation across current projections reflects this volatility, sustaining tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 30+ seat brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 44%
20-24 36%
25-29 19%
15-19 3.1%
$13,286 Vol.
$13,286 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
2%
5-9
2%
10-14
3%
15-19
3%
20-24
36%
25-29
19%
30+
44%
30+ 44%
20-24 36%
25-29 19%
15-19 3.1%
$13,286 Vol.
$13,286 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$647 Vol.
2%
5-9
$1,042 Vol.
2%
10-14
$2,752 Vol.
3%
15-19
$1,539 Vol.
3%
20-24
$2,756 Vol.
36%
25-29
$1,338 Vol.
19%
30+
$3,212 Vol.
44%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular vote lead near 29 percent while the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette has closed to within a few points at 24-27 percent, largely by drawing support from the Liberals. With the October 5 election underway after the writ drop in late August, the multi-party contest and vote splitting among federalist voters have created high uncertainty in seat outcomes. CAQ strength remains concentrated in suburban and regional ridings where it faces direct PQ challenges, making efficiency in those head-to-head races the decisive factor. Wide variation across current projections reflects this volatility, sustaining tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 30+ seat brackets.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$13,286End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular vote lead near 29 percent while the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette has closed to within a few points at 24-27 percent, largely by drawing support from the Liberals. With the October 5 election underway after the writ drop in late August, the multi-party contest and vote splitting among federalist voters have created high uncertainty in seat outcomes. CAQ strength remains concentrated in suburban and regional ridings where it faces direct PQ challenges, making efficiency in those head-to-head races the decisive factor. Wide variation across current projections reflects this volatility, sustaining tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 30+ seat brackets.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$13,286End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular vote lead near 29 percent while the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette has closed to within a few points at 24-27 percent, largely by drawing support from the Liberals. With the October 5 election underway after the writ drop in late August, the multi-party contest and vote splitting among federalist voters have created high uncertainty in seat outcomes. CAQ strength remains concentrated in suburban and regional ridings where it faces direct PQ challenges, making efficiency in those head-to-head races the decisive factor. Wide variation across current projections reflects this volatility, sustaining tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 30+ seat brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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