Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in third or fourth place provincially with roughly 22% support, behind the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, amid a fragmented five-party contest ahead of the October 5 election on the new 127-seat map. Seat models from 338Canada and others project PLQ totals clustered around 25–37, with volatility driven by regional swings, particularly in Montreal ridings where Liberals retain strength but face pressure from other parties. High undecided rates, CAQ recovery in suburban and rural francophone areas, and Conservative gains in Quebec City contribute to wide projection ranges. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 28–31, below-28, and 32–35 bands, as small shifts in turnout or late-campaign movement could alter final Liberal seat counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28-31 30%
<28 27%
32-35 20%
36-39 8%
$15,005 Vol.
$15,005 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
27%
28-31
30%
32-35
20%
36-39
8%
40-43
3%
44+
5%
28-31 30%
<28 27%
32-35 20%
36-39 8%
$15,005 Vol.
$15,005 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$3,190 Vol.
27%
28-31
$3,765 Vol.
30%
32-35
$1,988 Vol.
20%
36-39
$3,958 Vol.
8%
40-43
$1,184 Vol.
3%
44+
$939 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in third or fourth place provincially with roughly 22% support, behind the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, amid a fragmented five-party contest ahead of the October 5 election on the new 127-seat map. Seat models from 338Canada and others project PLQ totals clustered around 25–37, with volatility driven by regional swings, particularly in Montreal ridings where Liberals retain strength but face pressure from other parties. High undecided rates, CAQ recovery in suburban and rural francophone areas, and Conservative gains in Quebec City contribute to wide projection ranges. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 28–31, below-28, and 32–35 bands, as small shifts in turnout or late-campaign movement could alter final Liberal seat counts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$15,005End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in third or fourth place provincially with roughly 22% support, behind the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, amid a fragmented five-party contest ahead of the October 5 election on the new 127-seat map. Seat models from 338Canada and others project PLQ totals clustered around 25–37, with volatility driven by regional swings, particularly in Montreal ridings where Liberals retain strength but face pressure from other parties. High undecided rates, CAQ recovery in suburban and rural francophone areas, and Conservative gains in Quebec City contribute to wide projection ranges. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 28–31, below-28, and 32–35 bands, as small shifts in turnout or late-campaign movement could alter final Liberal seat counts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$15,005End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in third or fourth place provincially with roughly 22% support, behind the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, amid a fragmented five-party contest ahead of the October 5 election on the new 127-seat map. Seat models from 338Canada and others project PLQ totals clustered around 25–37, with volatility driven by regional swings, particularly in Montreal ridings where Liberals retain strength but face pressure from other parties. High undecided rates, CAQ recovery in suburban and rural francophone areas, and Conservative gains in Quebec City contribute to wide projection ranges. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 28–31, below-28, and 32–35 bands, as small shifts in turnout or late-campaign movement could alter final Liberal seat counts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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