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icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Eric Girard 71%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 24%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 2.5%

Julie Tourangeau 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Eric Girard 71%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 24%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 2.5%

Julie Tourangeau 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Eric Girard

Eric Girard

$1,168 Vol.

71%

icon for Marie-Claude Sarrazin

Marie-Claude Sarrazin

$470 Vol.

24%

icon for Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

$246 Vol.

3%

icon for Julie Tourangeau

Julie Tourangeau

$256 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec member and Quebec finance minister, holds the strongest position in the Groulx riding for the October 5, 2026, provincial election. His re-election bids since 2018 have produced consistent majorities in this Laurentides constituency, supported by the party's established organization and record on economic management. Marie-Claude Sarrazin, the Parti Québécois nominee announced in late August, brings visibility from her role as counsel in the SAAQclic public inquiry, allowing the party to emphasize accountability and fiscal oversight as contrasts to the governing record. Recent polling aggregates project a CAQ win probability near 70 percent, with other candidates from the Liberals, Québec solidaire, and Conservatives trailing further behind. The short campaign window leaves limited scope for additional shifts before ballots close.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,140
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec member and Quebec finance minister, holds the strongest position in the Groulx riding for the October 5, 2026, provincial election. His re-election bids since 2018 have produced consistent majorities in this Laurentides constituency, supported by the party's established organization and record on economic management. Marie-Claude Sarrazin, the Parti Québécois nominee announced in late August, brings visibility from her role as counsel in the SAAQclic public inquiry, allowing the party to emphasize accountability and fiscal oversight as contrasts to the governing record. Recent polling aggregates project a CAQ win probability near 70 percent, with other candidates from the Liberals, Québec solidaire, and Conservatives trailing further behind. The short campaign window leaves limited scope for additional shifts before ballots close.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,140
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Girard" at 71%, followed by "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Eric Girard" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.