United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for securing the largest share of seats in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in single-mandate districts that comprise half the 450 seats, and consistent leads in official polling from firms such as FOM and WCIOM. Recent candidate registration, party conventions, and ballot positioning further reinforce this edge, while New People has registered notable gains in some surveys as a newer entrant but trails substantially in projected seat totals. Other parties, including LDPR and KPRF, remain fragmented with lower support levels and limited paths to overtake the leader under the parallel voting system and 5% threshold. The election timing, combined with ongoing geopolitical conditions and managed competition, has kept probabilities stable in the weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 24.9%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 4.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.4%
$24,982,424 Vol.
$24,982,424 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
69%
New People (NL)
25%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
4%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Yabloko
<1%
Rodina
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 24.9%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 4.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.4%
$24,982,424 Vol.
$24,982,424 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$9,120,209 Vol.
69%
New People (NL)
$2,614,822 Vol.
25%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$3,584,002 Vol.
4%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$1,708,611 Vol.
1%
Yabloko
$1,653,677 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$2,878,322 Vol.
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$2,110,913 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$1,311,869 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for securing the largest share of seats in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in single-mandate districts that comprise half the 450 seats, and consistent leads in official polling from firms such as FOM and WCIOM. Recent candidate registration, party conventions, and ballot positioning further reinforce this edge, while New People has registered notable gains in some surveys as a newer entrant but trails substantially in projected seat totals. Other parties, including LDPR and KPRF, remain fragmented with lower support levels and limited paths to overtake the leader under the parallel voting system and 5% threshold. The election timing, combined with ongoing geopolitical conditions and managed competition, has kept probabilities stable in the weeks before voting.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$24,982,424End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for securing the largest share of seats in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in single-mandate districts that comprise half the 450 seats, and consistent leads in official polling from firms such as FOM and WCIOM. Recent candidate registration, party conventions, and ballot positioning further reinforce this edge, while New People has registered notable gains in some surveys as a newer entrant but trails substantially in projected seat totals. Other parties, including LDPR and KPRF, remain fragmented with lower support levels and limited paths to overtake the leader under the parallel voting system and 5% threshold. The election timing, combined with ongoing geopolitical conditions and managed competition, has kept probabilities stable in the weeks before voting.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$24,982,424End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for securing the largest share of seats in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election due to its status as the incumbent party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in single-mandate districts that comprise half the 450 seats, and consistent leads in official polling from firms such as FOM and WCIOM. Recent candidate registration, party conventions, and ballot positioning further reinforce this edge, while New People has registered notable gains in some surveys as a newer entrant but trails substantially in projected seat totals. Other parties, including LDPR and KPRF, remain fragmented with lower support levels and limited paths to overtake the leader under the parallel voting system and 5% threshold. The election timing, combined with ongoing geopolitical conditions and managed competition, has kept probabilities stable in the weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions