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icon for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

325–339 37%

310–324 26.5%

340–354 21%

355+ 6%

Polymarket

$378,508 Vol.

325–339 37%

310–324 26.5%

340–354 21%

355+ 6%

Polymarket

$378,508 Vol.

<280

$122,256 Vol.

4%

280–294

$21,315 Vol.

2%

295–309

$17,162 Vol.

5%

310–324

$64,659 Vol.

27%

325–339

$37,742 Vol.

37%

340–354

$63,178 Vol.

21%

355+

$52,194 Vol.

6%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia is positioned to secure between 310 and 354 seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, as traders price in the party’s structural advantages under Russia’s mixed electoral system of proportional representation and single-mandate districts. Recent June polls from VTsIOM and FOM show the party leading with roughly 43–52 percent support among decided voters, down from its 2021 result, amid economic pressures and war-related fatigue, yet still well ahead of CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Kremlin-aligned management of candidate registration, district boundaries, and ballot access has limited genuine opposition, while single-mandate contests are expected to deliver the additional mandates needed for a constitutional majority. The exclusion of parties such as Yabloko and adjustments to internal targets around a 45 percent party-list share have reinforced expectations that United Russia will maintain a seat total close to its current 310, with limited scope for major deviation before voting concludes.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$378,508
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia is positioned to secure between 310 and 354 seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, as traders price in the party’s structural advantages under Russia’s mixed electoral system of proportional representation and single-mandate districts. Recent June polls from VTsIOM and FOM show the party leading with roughly 43–52 percent support among decided voters, down from its 2021 result, amid economic pressures and war-related fatigue, yet still well ahead of CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Kremlin-aligned management of candidate registration, district boundaries, and ballot access has limited genuine opposition, while single-mandate contests are expected to deliver the additional mandates needed for a constitutional majority. The exclusion of parties such as Yabloko and adjustments to internal targets around a 45 percent party-list share have reinforced expectations that United Russia will maintain a seat total close to its current 310, with limited scope for major deviation before voting concludes.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$378,508
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "325–339" at 37%, followed by "310–324" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?" has generated $378.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?" is "325–339" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "310–324" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.