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icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Eric Girard 52%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 45%

Julie Tourangeau 1.8%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 1.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Eric Girard 52%

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 45%

Julie Tourangeau 1.8%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 1.2%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Eric Girard

Eric Girard

$1,001 Vol.

52%

icon for Marie-Claude Sarrazin

Marie-Claude Sarrazin

$407 Vol.

45%

icon for Julie Tourangeau

Julie Tourangeau

$200 Vol.

2%

icon for Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

$190 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Groulx riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election, traders see a tight contest between incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Finance Minister Eric Girard and Parti Québécois challenger Marie-Claude Sarrazin, with other candidates trailing.** Provincial polling trends have narrowed the CAQ’s historical advantage in this suburban Montreal-area seat, where Girard won comfortably in 2022. Sarrazin’s recent nomination has sharpened the matchup by highlighting opposition critiques on fiscal management and government performance. Models such as 338Canada still assign Girard the edge on the basis of incumbency and local results, yet the broader provincial environment—marked by fragmented opposition support and shifting voter sentiment—keeps implied probabilities close. Upcoming debates and final campaign developments through early October could widen or close the gap, as could any late shifts in turnout among nationalist or suburban voters. The resolution will follow official Élections Québec results.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,798
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Groulx riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, general election, traders see a tight contest between incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA and Finance Minister Eric Girard and Parti Québécois challenger Marie-Claude Sarrazin, with other candidates trailing.** Provincial polling trends have narrowed the CAQ’s historical advantage in this suburban Montreal-area seat, where Girard won comfortably in 2022. Sarrazin’s recent nomination has sharpened the matchup by highlighting opposition critiques on fiscal management and government performance. Models such as 338Canada still assign Girard the edge on the basis of incumbency and local results, yet the broader provincial environment—marked by fragmented opposition support and shifting voter sentiment—keeps implied probabilities close. Upcoming debates and final campaign developments through early October could widen or close the gap, as could any late shifts in turnout among nationalist or suburban voters. The resolution will follow official Élections Québec results.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,798
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Girard" at 52%, followed by "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Eric Girard" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.