Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, positioning the 10-13% outcome bin as the clear trader favorite. As the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, the party has lost ground since its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election, with support shifting toward the surging Linke and competitive showings by the CDU, Greens, and AfD. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa consistently show SPD figures clustered in the low teens amid voter focus on housing, social policy, and state governance. The 13-16% bin retains secondary support given minor weekly fluctuations, while sub-10% or 16%+ scenarios remain lower-probability outliers based on current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 53%
13-16% 28%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 9%
$13,125 Vol.
$13,125 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
12%
10-13%
53%
13-16%
28%
16%+
9%
10-13% 53%
13-16% 28%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 9%
$13,125 Vol.
$13,125 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$2,379 Vol.
12%
10-13%
$4,142 Vol.
53%
13-16%
$3,915 Vol.
28%
16%+
$2,689 Vol.
9%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, positioning the 10-13% outcome bin as the clear trader favorite. As the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, the party has lost ground since its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election, with support shifting toward the surging Linke and competitive showings by the CDU, Greens, and AfD. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa consistently show SPD figures clustered in the low teens amid voter focus on housing, social policy, and state governance. The 13-16% bin retains secondary support given minor weekly fluctuations, while sub-10% or 16%+ scenarios remain lower-probability outliers based on current trends.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$13,125End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, positioning the 10-13% outcome bin as the clear trader favorite. As the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, the party has lost ground since its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election, with support shifting toward the surging Linke and competitive showings by the CDU, Greens, and AfD. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa consistently show SPD figures clustered in the low teens amid voter focus on housing, social policy, and state governance. The 13-16% bin retains secondary support given minor weekly fluctuations, while sub-10% or 16%+ scenarios remain lower-probability outliers based on current trends.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$13,125End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the SPD at 12-13% in the September 20 Berlin state election, positioning the 10-13% outcome bin as the clear trader favorite. As the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition, the party has lost ground since its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election, with support shifting toward the surging Linke and competitive showings by the CDU, Greens, and AfD. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Civey, and Forsa consistently show SPD figures clustered in the low teens amid voter focus on housing, social policy, and state governance. The 13-16% bin retains secondary support given minor weekly fluctuations, while sub-10% or 16%+ scenarios remain lower-probability outliers based on current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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