Recent internal divisions within the ADI, including the 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada and factional tensions exposed during the July 2026 presidential election, have weakened the party's standing ahead of the September 27 parliamentary vote. Incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova, backed by the MLSTP–PSD, secured a first-round victory with over 55 percent, while the ADI candidate received around 41 percent. These developments, combined with the proportional representation system allocating 55 National Assembly seats across districts, underpin trader consensus that the ADI holds an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, ahead of the MLSTP–PSD and smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, and PCD. The short timeline to election day leaves limited room for major shifts absent new coalition announcements or turnout surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedADI 87%
MLSTP 9%
MDFM <1%
Nossa Terra <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
87%
MLSTP
9%
MDFM
1%
Nossa Terra
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
<1%
Basta
<1%
PCD
<1%
ADI 87%
MLSTP 9%
MDFM <1%
Nossa Terra <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
ADI
$3,262 Vol.
87%
MLSTP
$3,425 Vol.
9%
MDFM
$636 Vol.
1%
Nossa Terra
$664 Vol.
<1%
MCI-PS/PUN
$713 Vol.
<1%
Basta
$649 Vol.
<1%
PCD
$642 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.Recent internal divisions within the ADI, including the 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada and factional tensions exposed during the July 2026 presidential election, have weakened the party's standing ahead of the September 27 parliamentary vote. Incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova, backed by the MLSTP–PSD, secured a first-round victory with over 55 percent, while the ADI candidate received around 41 percent. These developments, combined with the proportional representation system allocating 55 National Assembly seats across districts, underpin trader consensus that the ADI holds an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, ahead of the MLSTP–PSD and smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, and PCD. The short timeline to election day leaves limited room for major shifts absent new coalition announcements or turnout surprises.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$9,991End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.Recent internal divisions within the ADI, including the 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada and factional tensions exposed during the July 2026 presidential election, have weakened the party's standing ahead of the September 27 parliamentary vote. Incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova, backed by the MLSTP–PSD, secured a first-round victory with over 55 percent, while the ADI candidate received around 41 percent. These developments, combined with the proportional representation system allocating 55 National Assembly seats across districts, underpin trader consensus that the ADI holds an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, ahead of the MLSTP–PSD and smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, and PCD. The short timeline to election day leaves limited room for major shifts absent new coalition announcements or turnout surprises.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$9,991End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent internal divisions within the ADI, including the 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada and factional tensions exposed during the July 2026 presidential election, have weakened the party's standing ahead of the September 27 parliamentary vote. Incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova, backed by the MLSTP–PSD, secured a first-round victory with over 55 percent, while the ADI candidate received around 41 percent. These developments, combined with the proportional representation system allocating 55 National Assembly seats across districts, underpin trader consensus that the ADI holds an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, ahead of the MLSTP–PSD and smaller parties such as MCI-PS/PUN, Basta, and PCD. The short timeline to election day leaves limited room for major shifts absent new coalition announcements or turnout surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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