The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026 Senate election stems from recent party conventions that finalized a crowded field of 13 candidates for two seats, with voters selecting two names on the ballot. Esperidião Amin (PP), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest edge in late-August polling at around 19-23 percent, narrowly ahead of PL nominees Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, who together benefit from the party’s state-level alliance supporting Governor Jorginho Mello. Décio Lima (PT) trails further back, while the remaining candidates register negligible support. The PL ticket split and Amin’s shift to a separate coalition have fragmented conservative voters, sustaining the close trader-implied probabilities among the three frontrunners with roughly one month until voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Esperidião Amin 37.3%
Carol de Toni 31%
Carlos Bolsonaro 30%
Décio Lima 4.0%
$26,035 Vol.
$26,035 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Esperidião Amin
37%
Carol de Toni
31%
Carlos Bolsonaro
30%
Décio Lima
4%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Carol
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Esperidião Amin 37.3%
Carol de Toni 31%
Carlos Bolsonaro 30%
Décio Lima 4.0%
$26,035 Vol.
$26,035 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Esperidião Amin
$4,196 Vol.
37%
Carol de Toni
$7,527 Vol.
31%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$6,880 Vol.
30%
Décio Lima
$1,115 Vol.
4%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$715 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$680 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$796 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$666 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$540 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$562 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$770 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$465 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026 Senate election stems from recent party conventions that finalized a crowded field of 13 candidates for two seats, with voters selecting two names on the ballot. Esperidião Amin (PP), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest edge in late-August polling at around 19-23 percent, narrowly ahead of PL nominees Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, who together benefit from the party’s state-level alliance supporting Governor Jorginho Mello. Décio Lima (PT) trails further back, while the remaining candidates register negligible support. The PL ticket split and Amin’s shift to a separate coalition have fragmented conservative voters, sustaining the close trader-implied probabilities among the three frontrunners with roughly one month until voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$26,035End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026 Senate election stems from recent party conventions that finalized a crowded field of 13 candidates for two seats, with voters selecting two names on the ballot. Esperidião Amin (PP), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest edge in late-August polling at around 19-23 percent, narrowly ahead of PL nominees Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, who together benefit from the party’s state-level alliance supporting Governor Jorginho Mello. Décio Lima (PT) trails further back, while the remaining candidates register negligible support. The PL ticket split and Amin’s shift to a separate coalition have fragmented conservative voters, sustaining the close trader-implied probabilities among the three frontrunners with roughly one month until voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,035End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina’s October 4, 2026 Senate election stems from recent party conventions that finalized a crowded field of 13 candidates for two seats, with voters selecting two names on the ballot. Esperidião Amin (PP), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest edge in late-August polling at around 19-23 percent, narrowly ahead of PL nominees Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, who together benefit from the party’s state-level alliance supporting Governor Jorginho Mello. Décio Lima (PT) trails further back, while the remaining candidates register negligible support. The PL ticket split and Amin’s shift to a separate coalition have fragmented conservative voters, sustaining the close trader-implied probabilities among the three frontrunners with roughly one month until voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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