Marcelo Castro holds the strongest position in trader pricing for first place in Piauí’s October 4 Senate contest, reflecting June polling from Amostragem and AtlasIntel that placed him ahead or tied atop the field with roughly 26-30% first-preference support. Ciro Nogueira trails at lower implied odds amid elevated rejection rates near 18% in the same surveys, while Júlio César registers third in most head-to-head measures. With two seats at stake and roughly 20 registered candidates, the race hinges on vote concentration among the top three, turnout patterns in key municipalities, and any late shifts in coalition alignments or undecided voters still exceeding 15% in recent samples. No major developments have altered the ordering since mid-year surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Marcelo Castro 53%
Ciro Nogueira 32%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,611 Vol.
$39,611 Vol.
Marcelo Castro
53%
Ciro Nogueira
32%
Julio Cesar
12%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Marcelo Castro 53%
Ciro Nogueira 32%
Julio Cesar 16.0%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$39,611 Vol.
$39,611 Vol.
Marcelo Castro
53%
Ciro Nogueira
32%
Julio Cesar
12%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Marcelo Castro holds the strongest position in trader pricing for first place in Piauí’s October 4 Senate contest, reflecting June polling from Amostragem and AtlasIntel that placed him ahead or tied atop the field with roughly 26-30% first-preference support. Ciro Nogueira trails at lower implied odds amid elevated rejection rates near 18% in the same surveys, while Júlio César registers third in most head-to-head measures. With two seats at stake and roughly 20 registered candidates, the race hinges on vote concentration among the top three, turnout patterns in key municipalities, and any late shifts in coalition alignments or undecided voters still exceeding 15% in recent samples. No major developments have altered the ordering since mid-year surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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