Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and local meteorological agencies indicates Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 6 will likely settle near 25°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 8-12 km/h and moderate humidity around 70-80%. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where cooling from clear periods overnight supports lows in the mid-20s Celsius rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Trader positioning at 66% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement, while the 31% on 26°C accounts for potential residual warmth from daytime highs near 30°C and light precipitation chances that could moderate the drop. Updated runs ahead of resolution may refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
25°C 51%
26°C 37%
24°C 6%
23°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
6%
25°C
56%
26°C
37%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 51%
26°C 37%
24°C 6%
23°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$161 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$442 Vol.
1%
24°C
$688 Vol.
6%
25°C
$862 Vol.
56%
26°C
$2,154 Vol.
37%
27°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and local meteorological agencies indicates Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 6 will likely settle near 25°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 8-12 km/h and moderate humidity around 70-80%. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where cooling from clear periods overnight supports lows in the mid-20s Celsius rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Trader positioning at 66% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement, while the 31% on 26°C accounts for potential residual warmth from daytime highs near 30°C and light precipitation chances that could moderate the drop. Updated runs ahead of resolution may refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,269End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and local meteorological agencies indicates Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 6 will likely settle near 25°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 8-12 km/h and moderate humidity around 70-80%. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where cooling from clear periods overnight supports lows in the mid-20s Celsius rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Trader positioning at 66% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement, while the 31% on 26°C accounts for potential residual warmth from daytime highs near 30°C and light precipitation chances that could moderate the drop. Updated runs ahead of resolution may refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,269End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and local meteorological agencies indicates Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 6 will likely settle near 25°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds of 8-12 km/h and moderate humidity around 70-80%. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where cooling from clear periods overnight supports lows in the mid-20s Celsius rather than warmer or cooler extremes. Trader positioning at 66% implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this model agreement, while the 31% on 26°C accounts for potential residual warmth from daytime highs near 30°C and light precipitation chances that could moderate the drop. Updated runs ahead of resolution may refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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