Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature near the long-term September 7 average of 56.1 °F in downtown San Francisco, driven by persistent marine-layer influence, light onshore flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies under building upper-level ridging. These conditions typically allow radiational cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or fog that could push readings lower. Current short-range forecasts cluster lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, supporting the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin while limiting the probability of sub-52 °F readings that would require an unusually strong offshore flow or clearer, drier air mass. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine wind and cloud-cover details ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
66°F or higher 67%
47°F or below 57%
56-57°F 54%
60-61°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
57%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
22%
52-53°F
30%
54-55°F
31%
56-57°F
40%
58-59°F
45%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
44%
64-65°F
19%
66°F or higher
67%
66°F or higher 67%
47°F or below 57%
56-57°F 54%
60-61°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
57%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
19%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
22%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
30%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
31%
56-57°F
$28 Vol.
40%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
45%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
44%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature near the long-term September 7 average of 56.1 °F in downtown San Francisco, driven by persistent marine-layer influence, light onshore flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies under building upper-level ridging. These conditions typically allow radiational cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or fog that could push readings lower. Current short-range forecasts cluster lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, supporting the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin while limiting the probability of sub-52 °F readings that would require an unusually strong offshore flow or clearer, drier air mass. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine wind and cloud-cover details ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature near the long-term September 7 average of 56.1 °F in downtown San Francisco, driven by persistent marine-layer influence, light onshore flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies under building upper-level ridging. These conditions typically allow radiational cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or fog that could push readings lower. Current short-range forecasts cluster lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, supporting the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin while limiting the probability of sub-52 °F readings that would require an unusually strong offshore flow or clearer, drier air mass. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine wind and cloud-cover details ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature near the long-term September 7 average of 56.1 °F in downtown San Francisco, driven by persistent marine-layer influence, light onshore flow, and clear to partly cloudy skies under building upper-level ridging. These conditions typically allow radiational cooling overnight without strong cold-air advection or fog that could push readings lower. Current short-range forecasts cluster lows in the mid-to-upper 50s, supporting the market’s leading 56-57 °F bin while limiting the probability of sub-52 °F readings that would require an unusually strong offshore flow or clearer, drier air mass. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine wind and cloud-cover details ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions