Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 58°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 58-59°F outcome at over 90% implied probability. Marine layer fog and onshore flow typical of early September maintained overnight cooling near seasonal normals of 56°F while preventing deeper radiational drops. This consensus reflects traders weighting the primary resolution station alongside historical analogs where SFO lows cluster in the upper 50s under similar synoptic patterns. A shift to downtown measurements near 56°F or revised post-analysis data could still alter resolution if those criteria apply, though current verified readings leave limited room for such adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
58-59°F 99%
47°F or below 1.0%
48-49°F 1.0%
50-51°F 1.0%
$1,052 Vol.
$1,052 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
Yes
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
58-59°F 99%
47°F or below 1.0%
48-49°F 1.0%
50-51°F 1.0%
$1,052 Vol.
$1,052 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
47°F or below
$18 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$38 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$23 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$37 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$72 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$202 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$397 Vol.
Yes
60-61°F
$94 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$91 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$32 Vol.
No
66°F or higher
$47 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 58°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 58-59°F outcome at over 90% implied probability. Marine layer fog and onshore flow typical of early September maintained overnight cooling near seasonal normals of 56°F while preventing deeper radiational drops. This consensus reflects traders weighting the primary resolution station alongside historical analogs where SFO lows cluster in the upper 50s under similar synoptic patterns. A shift to downtown measurements near 56°F or revised post-analysis data could still alter resolution if those criteria apply, though current verified readings leave limited room for such adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,052End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 58°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 58-59°F outcome at over 90% implied probability. Marine layer fog and onshore flow typical of early September maintained overnight cooling near seasonal normals of 56°F while preventing deeper radiational drops. This consensus reflects traders weighting the primary resolution station alongside historical analogs where SFO lows cluster in the upper 50s under similar synoptic patterns. A shift to downtown measurements near 56°F or revised post-analysis data could still alter resolution if those criteria apply, though current verified readings leave limited room for such adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,052End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum of 58°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 58-59°F outcome at over 90% implied probability. Marine layer fog and onshore flow typical of early September maintained overnight cooling near seasonal normals of 56°F while preventing deeper radiational drops. This consensus reflects traders weighting the primary resolution station alongside historical analogs where SFO lows cluster in the upper 50s under similar synoptic patterns. A shift to downtown measurements near 56°F or revised post-analysis data could still alter resolution if those criteria apply, though current verified readings leave limited room for such adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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