**Recent forecasts for Amsterdam on September 9, 2026, point to a daytime high near 17–20°C with showers or thunderstorms and a nighttime low in the 12–14°C range, consistent with early-autumn maritime conditions.** Cooler air advection from the west under a low-pressure system, combined with expected rain and moderate winds, is the main driver suppressing temperatures relative to the prior warm spell. Nighttime radiative cooling will depend on cloud cover: clearer intervals could allow lows to dip toward 11–12°C, while persistent clouds or rain would limit that drop. Historical September lows average around 11°C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds remain closely bunched (leading outcomes 25–34.5%) because short-range models still show spread in exact overnight minimums and timing of any clearing. Key upcoming catalysts include updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official KNMI or NHC-adjacent guidance, which will sharpen resolution criteria around precise temperature thresholds. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 9?
9°C or below 69%
13°C 50%
14°C 50%
15°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
69%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
45%
13°C
50%
14°C
50%
15°C
49%
16°C
39%
17°C
19%
18°C
19%
19°C or higher
49%
9°C or below 69%
13°C 50%
14°C 50%
15°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$0 Vol.
50%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Amsterdam on September 9, 2026, point to a daytime high near 17–20°C with showers or thunderstorms and a nighttime low in the 12–14°C range, consistent with early-autumn maritime conditions.**
Cooler air advection from the west under a low-pressure system, combined with expected rain and moderate winds, is the main driver suppressing temperatures relative to the prior warm spell. Nighttime radiative cooling will depend on cloud cover: clearer intervals could allow lows to dip toward 11–12°C, while persistent clouds or rain would limit that drop. Historical September lows average around 11°C, providing context for the current setup.
Market-implied odds remain closely bunched (leading outcomes 25–34.5%) because short-range models still show spread in exact overnight minimums and timing of any clearing. Key upcoming catalysts include updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official KNMI or NHC-adjacent guidance, which will sharpen resolution criteria around precise temperature thresholds. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Amsterdam on September 9, 2026, point to a daytime high near 17–20°C with showers or thunderstorms and a nighttime low in the 12–14°C range, consistent with early-autumn maritime conditions.**
Cooler air advection from the west under a low-pressure system, combined with expected rain and moderate winds, is the main driver suppressing temperatures relative to the prior warm spell. Nighttime radiative cooling will depend on cloud cover: clearer intervals could allow lows to dip toward 11–12°C, while persistent clouds or rain would limit that drop. Historical September lows average around 11°C, providing context for the current setup.
Market-implied odds remain closely bunched (leading outcomes 25–34.5%) because short-range models still show spread in exact overnight minimums and timing of any clearing. Key upcoming catalysts include updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official KNMI or NHC-adjacent guidance, which will sharpen resolution criteria around precise temperature thresholds. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Amsterdam on September 9, 2026, point to a daytime high near 17–20°C with showers or thunderstorms and a nighttime low in the 12–14°C range, consistent with early-autumn maritime conditions.** Cooler air advection from the west under a low-pressure system, combined with expected rain and moderate winds, is the main driver suppressing temperatures relative to the prior warm spell. Nighttime radiative cooling will depend on cloud cover: clearer intervals could allow lows to dip toward 11–12°C, while persistent clouds or rain would limit that drop. Historical September lows average around 11°C, providing context for the current setup. Market-implied odds remain closely bunched (leading outcomes 25–34.5%) because short-range models still show spread in exact overnight minimums and timing of any clearing. Key upcoming catalysts include updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official KNMI or NHC-adjacent guidance, which will sharpen resolution criteria around precise temperature thresholds. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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