Recent forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS show unsettled Atlantic flow with southwest winds and periods of rain or showers crossing the Netherlands on September 8, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 13–14 °C at Schiphol. Historical September climatology places the average low near 11.5 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and advection of milder maritime air this week have kept recent minima several degrees above that baseline. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any clearing introduces realistic scenarios for either sub-11 °C radiational cooling or retained warmth above 16 °C, which accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the mid-teens alongside the balanced tails at the extremes. Updated model cycles and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
10°C or below 69%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
10°C or below
69%
11°C
8%
12°C
41%
13°C
41%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
48%
17°C
41%
18°C
41%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
27%
10°C or below 69%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
41%
13°C
$0 Vol.
41%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
41%
18°C
$0 Vol.
41%
19°C
$0 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS show unsettled Atlantic flow with southwest winds and periods of rain or showers crossing the Netherlands on September 8, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 13–14 °C at Schiphol. Historical September climatology places the average low near 11.5 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and advection of milder maritime air this week have kept recent minima several degrees above that baseline. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any clearing introduces realistic scenarios for either sub-11 °C radiational cooling or retained warmth above 16 °C, which accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the mid-teens alongside the balanced tails at the extremes. Updated model cycles and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS show unsettled Atlantic flow with southwest winds and periods of rain or showers crossing the Netherlands on September 8, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 13–14 °C at Schiphol. Historical September climatology places the average low near 11.5 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and advection of milder maritime air this week have kept recent minima several degrees above that baseline. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any clearing introduces realistic scenarios for either sub-11 °C radiational cooling or retained warmth above 16 °C, which accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the mid-teens alongside the balanced tails at the extremes. Updated model cycles and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from ECMWF and GFS show unsettled Atlantic flow with southwest winds and periods of rain or showers crossing the Netherlands on September 8, limiting overnight radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 13–14 °C at Schiphol. Historical September climatology places the average low near 11.5 °C, yet persistent cloud cover and advection of milder maritime air this week have kept recent minima several degrees above that baseline. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any clearing introduces realistic scenarios for either sub-11 °C radiational cooling or retained warmth above 16 °C, which accounts for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the mid-teens alongside the balanced tails at the extremes. Updated model cycles and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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