Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Turkish meteorological sources indicate a maximum of 24–25°C for Istanbul on September 8, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. This aligns with early-September climatology, when highs typically moderate from late-summer peaks near 28–30°C toward the seasonal average around 25°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper 20s Celsius range, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong warm-air advection expected before resolution. Traders have priced 24°C as the clear mode while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 8?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 8?
24°C 57%
22°C 36%
25°C 36%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
7%
22°C
36%
23°C
22%
24°C
57%
25°C
36%
26°C
7%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
4%
24°C 57%
22°C 36%
25°C 36%
23°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$115 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
36%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$61 Vol.
57%
25°C
$81 Vol.
36%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Turkish meteorological sources indicate a maximum of 24–25°C for Istanbul on September 8, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. This aligns with early-September climatology, when highs typically moderate from late-summer peaks near 28–30°C toward the seasonal average around 25°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper 20s Celsius range, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong warm-air advection expected before resolution. Traders have priced 24°C as the clear mode while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$256End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Turkish meteorological sources indicate a maximum of 24–25°C for Istanbul on September 8, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. This aligns with early-September climatology, when highs typically moderate from late-summer peaks near 28–30°C toward the seasonal average around 25°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper 20s Celsius range, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong warm-air advection expected before resolution. Traders have priced 24°C as the clear mode while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$256End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Turkish meteorological sources indicate a maximum of 24–25°C for Istanbul on September 8, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. This aligns with early-September climatology, when highs typically moderate from late-summer peaks near 28–30°C toward the seasonal average around 25°C. Model consensus remains tight on the upper 20s Celsius range, with minimal precipitation risk and no strong warm-air advection expected before resolution. Traders have priced 24°C as the clear mode while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given typical forecast uncertainty of ±1–2°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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