Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and official meteorological services indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum near 30°C under clear skies, light southerly then northerly winds, and high pressure that limits cloud cover and mixing. Afternoon observations already show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s°C, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean conditions where solar heating peaks without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Market-implied odds favoring 30°C or 31°C reflect this consensus while acknowledging model spread and potential microclimate variations across the city; final resolution hinges on the official peak reading, with minimal precipitation risk keeping values in the narrow 28–32°C range most probable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
30°C 48%
31°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
14%
30°C
48%
31°C
27%
32°C
8%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 48%
31°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
$170 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$226 Vol.
1%
27°C
$580 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,453 Vol.
7%
29°C
$1,496 Vol.
14%
30°C
$890 Vol.
48%
31°C
$885 Vol.
27%
32°C
$546 Vol.
8%
33°C
$1,463 Vol.
1%
34°C
$341 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$441 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and official meteorological services indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum near 30°C under clear skies, light southerly then northerly winds, and high pressure that limits cloud cover and mixing. Afternoon observations already show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s°C, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean conditions where solar heating peaks without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Market-implied odds favoring 30°C or 31°C reflect this consensus while acknowledging model spread and potential microclimate variations across the city; final resolution hinges on the official peak reading, with minimal precipitation risk keeping values in the narrow 28–32°C range most probable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$8,491End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and official meteorological services indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum near 30°C under clear skies, light southerly then northerly winds, and high pressure that limits cloud cover and mixing. Afternoon observations already show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s°C, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean conditions where solar heating peaks without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Market-implied odds favoring 30°C or 31°C reflect this consensus while acknowledging model spread and potential microclimate variations across the city; final resolution hinges on the official peak reading, with minimal precipitation risk keeping values in the narrow 28–32°C range most probable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,491End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS and official meteorological services indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum near 30°C under clear skies, light southerly then northerly winds, and high pressure that limits cloud cover and mixing. Afternoon observations already show temperatures climbing through the mid-20s°C, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean conditions where solar heating peaks without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Market-implied odds favoring 30°C or 31°C reflect this consensus while acknowledging model spread and potential microclimate variations across the city; final resolution hinges on the official peak reading, with minimal precipitation risk keeping values in the narrow 28–32°C range most probable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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