Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 30°C in Chengdu on September 8, driven by a shift from recent heat (34–36°C highs earlier in the week) to increased cloud cover and scattered showers as a frontal system arrives. Precipitation and higher humidity will reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum compared with clearer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C because small variations in rain timing, intensity, or model spread—such as differences in the National Meteorological Center or ECMWF runs—can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region average 26–28°C, underscoring how this transitional pattern favors the lower end of recent warmth. Updated guidance on September 7 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 8?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 8?
30°C 25%
29°C 23%
31°C 13%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
26°C or below
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
16%
29°C
23%
30°C
25%
31°C
13%
32°C
10%
33°C
7%
34°C
6%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
2%
30°C 25%
29°C 23%
31°C 13%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$54 Vol.
16%
29°C
$101 Vol.
23%
30°C
$10 Vol.
25%
31°C
$0 Vol.
13%
32°C
$220 Vol.
10%
33°C
$9 Vol.
7%
34°C
$23 Vol.
6%
35°C
$0 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$115 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 30°C in Chengdu on September 8, driven by a shift from recent heat (34–36°C highs earlier in the week) to increased cloud cover and scattered showers as a frontal system arrives. Precipitation and higher humidity will reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum compared with clearer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C because small variations in rain timing, intensity, or model spread—such as differences in the National Meteorological Center or ECMWF runs—can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region average 26–28°C, underscoring how this transitional pattern favors the lower end of recent warmth. Updated guidance on September 7 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$533End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 30°C in Chengdu on September 8, driven by a shift from recent heat (34–36°C highs earlier in the week) to increased cloud cover and scattered showers as a frontal system arrives. Precipitation and higher humidity will reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum compared with clearer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C because small variations in rain timing, intensity, or model spread—such as differences in the National Meteorological Center or ECMWF runs—can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region average 26–28°C, underscoring how this transitional pattern favors the lower end of recent warmth. Updated guidance on September 7 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$533End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a high near 30°C in Chengdu on September 8, driven by a shift from recent heat (34–36°C highs earlier in the week) to increased cloud cover and scattered showers as a frontal system arrives. Precipitation and higher humidity will reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum compared with clearer conditions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C because small variations in rain timing, intensity, or model spread—such as differences in the National Meteorological Center or ECMWF runs—can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region average 26–28°C, underscoring how this transitional pattern favors the lower end of recent warmth. Updated guidance on September 7 will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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