Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Central Park shows a high near 82°F on September 8, driven by clearing skies behind a weak frontal passage, light northwest flow, and modest surface heating under partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily highs average 79°F, while keeping temperatures below the 85°F threshold that would require stronger southerly advection or full sun. Updated short-range guidance from the past 24 hours has narrowed the envelope around the low-80s range, supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 82-83°F and the secondary clustering at 80-81°F. Longer-range ensembles show limited upside risk from warmer solutions, consistent with the lower odds assigned to 84°F and above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 8?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 8?
82-83°F 51%
80-81°F 37%
78-79°F 25%
84-85°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
37%
82-83°F
51%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 51%
80-81°F 37%
78-79°F 25%
84-85°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
14%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
37%
82-83°F
$125 Vol.
51%
84-85°F
$6 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
18%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
16%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
2%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Central Park shows a high near 82°F on September 8, driven by clearing skies behind a weak frontal passage, light northwest flow, and modest surface heating under partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily highs average 79°F, while keeping temperatures below the 85°F threshold that would require stronger southerly advection or full sun. Updated short-range guidance from the past 24 hours has narrowed the envelope around the low-80s range, supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 82-83°F and the secondary clustering at 80-81°F. Longer-range ensembles show limited upside risk from warmer solutions, consistent with the lower odds assigned to 84°F and above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 2:55 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Central Park shows a high near 82°F on September 8, driven by clearing skies behind a weak frontal passage, light northwest flow, and modest surface heating under partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily highs average 79°F, while keeping temperatures below the 85°F threshold that would require stronger southerly advection or full sun. Updated short-range guidance from the past 24 hours has narrowed the envelope around the low-80s range, supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 82-83°F and the secondary clustering at 80-81°F. Longer-range ensembles show limited upside risk from warmer solutions, consistent with the lower odds assigned to 84°F and above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Central Park shows a high near 82°F on September 8, driven by clearing skies behind a weak frontal passage, light northwest flow, and modest surface heating under partly cloudy conditions. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when daily highs average 79°F, while keeping temperatures below the 85°F threshold that would require stronger southerly advection or full sun. Updated short-range guidance from the past 24 hours has narrowed the envelope around the low-80s range, supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 82-83°F and the secondary clustering at 80-81°F. Longer-range ensembles show limited upside risk from warmer solutions, consistent with the lower odds assigned to 84°F and above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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