Persistent southwest monsoon activity has suppressed daytime heating across Metro Manila on September 6, 2026, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating a maximum air temperature of 30°C amid widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and thunderstorms. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies have kept observed and projected highs tightly clustered near or below this threshold, aligning with trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 30°C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any abrupt monsoon weakening or localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming, though current observational data and model runs show strong consistency against reaching 33°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 6?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 6?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$33,901 Vol.
$33,901 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$33,901 Vol.
$33,901 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
$510 Vol.
No
24°C
$560 Vol.
No
25°C
$219 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,513 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,571 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,441 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,553 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,734 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$4,678 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,736 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$387 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity has suppressed daytime heating across Metro Manila on September 6, 2026, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating a maximum air temperature of 30°C amid widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and thunderstorms. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies have kept observed and projected highs tightly clustered near or below this threshold, aligning with trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 30°C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any abrupt monsoon weakening or localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming, though current observational data and model runs show strong consistency against reaching 33°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$33,901End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity has suppressed daytime heating across Metro Manila on September 6, 2026, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating a maximum air temperature of 30°C amid widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and thunderstorms. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies have kept observed and projected highs tightly clustered near or below this threshold, aligning with trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 30°C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any abrupt monsoon weakening or localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming, though current observational data and model runs show strong consistency against reaching 33°C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,901End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent southwest monsoon activity has suppressed daytime heating across Metro Manila on September 6, 2026, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating a maximum air temperature of 30°C amid widespread cloud cover, heavy showers, and thunderstorms. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast skies have kept observed and projected highs tightly clustered near or below this threshold, aligning with trader consensus at near-100% implied probability for the 30°C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any abrupt monsoon weakening or localized clearing that could allow brief additional warming, though current observational data and model runs show strong consistency against reaching 33°C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions