Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, sustains extensive cloud cover, high humidity near 85-94%, and scattered to moderate rainfall on September 7, suppressing radiative cooling and anchoring overnight lows near 24-26°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs highlight this narrow range, with light-to-moderate showers and westerly winds limiting diurnal temperature swings compared to drier analogs. Slight variations in rainfall timing or localized clearing could differentiate between a 24°C minimum versus 26°C, while distant Tropical Storm Krovanh exerts negligible steering influence. Market-implied odds reflect this genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final observational data from Manila stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 7?
23°C 50%
28°C 50%
29°C 48%
25°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
21°C or below
5%
22°C
5%
23°C
50%
24°C
30%
25°C
32%
26°C
32%
27°C
27%
28°C
50%
29°C
48%
30°C
5%
31°C or higher
5%
23°C 50%
28°C 50%
29°C 48%
25°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$4 Vol.
30%
25°C
$0 Vol.
32%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
50%
29°C
$0 Vol.
48%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, sustains extensive cloud cover, high humidity near 85-94%, and scattered to moderate rainfall on September 7, suppressing radiative cooling and anchoring overnight lows near 24-26°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs highlight this narrow range, with light-to-moderate showers and westerly winds limiting diurnal temperature swings compared to drier analogs. Slight variations in rainfall timing or localized clearing could differentiate between a 24°C minimum versus 26°C, while distant Tropical Storm Krovanh exerts negligible steering influence. Market-implied odds reflect this genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final observational data from Manila stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$4End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, sustains extensive cloud cover, high humidity near 85-94%, and scattered to moderate rainfall on September 7, suppressing radiative cooling and anchoring overnight lows near 24-26°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs highlight this narrow range, with light-to-moderate showers and westerly winds limiting diurnal temperature swings compared to drier analogs. Slight variations in rainfall timing or localized clearing could differentiate between a 24°C minimum versus 26°C, while distant Tropical Storm Krovanh exerts negligible steering influence. Market-implied odds reflect this genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final observational data from Manila stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over western Luzon, including Metro Manila, sustains extensive cloud cover, high humidity near 85-94%, and scattered to moderate rainfall on September 7, suppressing radiative cooling and anchoring overnight lows near 24-26°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs highlight this narrow range, with light-to-moderate showers and westerly winds limiting diurnal temperature swings compared to drier analogs. Slight variations in rainfall timing or localized clearing could differentiate between a 24°C minimum versus 26°C, while distant Tropical Storm Krovanh exerts negligible steering influence. Market-implied odds reflect this genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final observational data from Manila stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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