Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a high of 73–75°F for New York City on September 6, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and possible light drizzle or cloud cover that limits daytime heating below the 79.5°F climatological average. This positions the 74–75°F bin as the market leader at 54% implied probability, with 72–73°F and 76–77°F capturing residual model spread. Recent observations from September 5 showed highs near 79–80°F before a cooler air mass arrived, and official guidance notes only modest warming potential absent stronger southerly winds or clearing skies. Traders weigh these short-term variables against historical September variability, where similar setups have produced highs clustered in the low to mid-70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 6?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 6?
74-75°F 54%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 3%
NEW
$18,724 Vol.
NEW
$18,724 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
54%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 54%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 3%
NEW
$18,724 Vol.
NEW
$18,724 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
65°F or below
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$67 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$125 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$961 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$2,815 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$4,845 Vol.
54%
76-77°F
$3,493 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$3,233 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$1,106 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$648 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a high of 73–75°F for New York City on September 6, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and possible light drizzle or cloud cover that limits daytime heating below the 79.5°F climatological average. This positions the 74–75°F bin as the market leader at 54% implied probability, with 72–73°F and 76–77°F capturing residual model spread. Recent observations from September 5 showed highs near 79–80°F before a cooler air mass arrived, and official guidance notes only modest warming potential absent stronger southerly winds or clearing skies. Traders weigh these short-term variables against historical September variability, where similar setups have produced highs clustered in the low to mid-70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$18,724End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a high of 73–75°F for New York City on September 6, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and possible light drizzle or cloud cover that limits daytime heating below the 79.5°F climatological average. This positions the 74–75°F bin as the market leader at 54% implied probability, with 72–73°F and 76–77°F capturing residual model spread. Recent observations from September 5 showed highs near 79–80°F before a cooler air mass arrived, and official guidance notes only modest warming potential absent stronger southerly winds or clearing skies. Traders weigh these short-term variables against historical September variability, where similar setups have produced highs clustered in the low to mid-70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,724End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts indicate a high of 73–75°F for New York City on September 6, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and possible light drizzle or cloud cover that limits daytime heating below the 79.5°F climatological average. This positions the 74–75°F bin as the market leader at 54% implied probability, with 72–73°F and 76–77°F capturing residual model spread. Recent observations from September 5 showed highs near 79–80°F before a cooler air mass arrived, and official guidance notes only modest warming potential absent stronger southerly winds or clearing skies. Traders weigh these short-term variables against historical September variability, where similar setups have produced highs clustered in the low to mid-70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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