Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry show a high near 98–99°F on September 7 under building high pressure, with mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and heat indices reaching 105°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 98–99°F outcome at 46.5% implied probability. The pattern follows a brief weekend cooldown from residual moisture, returning above-normal warmth typical of early September in Central Texas, where the 1991–2020 average high is about 93°F. Low rain chances (around 10%) and model consensus support limited cooling, though any increase in cloud cover or sea-breeze effects could trim highs toward the 96–97°F bin (21%). Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 7?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 7?
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 21%
96-97°F 21%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
87°F or below
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
21%
98-99°F
47%
100-101°F
21%
102-103°F
5%
104-105°F
2%
106°F or higher
1%
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 21%
96-97°F 21%
94-95°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
87°F or below
$48 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$48 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$80 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$119 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$2,207 Vol.
21%
98-99°F
$294 Vol.
47%
100-101°F
$92 Vol.
21%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
5%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
2%
106°F or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry show a high near 98–99°F on September 7 under building high pressure, with mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and heat indices reaching 105°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 98–99°F outcome at 46.5% implied probability. The pattern follows a brief weekend cooldown from residual moisture, returning above-normal warmth typical of early September in Central Texas, where the 1991–2020 average high is about 93°F. Low rain chances (around 10%) and model consensus support limited cooling, though any increase in cloud cover or sea-breeze effects could trim highs toward the 96–97°F bin (21%). Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,886End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry show a high near 98–99°F on September 7 under building high pressure, with mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and heat indices reaching 105°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 98–99°F outcome at 46.5% implied probability. The pattern follows a brief weekend cooldown from residual moisture, returning above-normal warmth typical of early September in Central Texas, where the 1991–2020 average high is about 93°F. Low rain chances (around 10%) and model consensus support limited cooling, though any increase in cloud cover or sea-breeze effects could trim highs toward the 96–97°F bin (21%). Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,886End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin-Bergstrom and Camp Mabry show a high near 98–99°F on September 7 under building high pressure, with mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and heat indices reaching 105°F amid elevated humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 98–99°F outcome at 46.5% implied probability. The pattern follows a brief weekend cooldown from residual moisture, returning above-normal warmth typical of early September in Central Texas, where the 1991–2020 average high is about 93°F. Low rain chances (around 10%) and model consensus support limited cooling, though any increase in cloud cover or sea-breeze effects could trim highs toward the 96–97°F bin (21%). Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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