A cold front and subsequent polar air mass advection have driven recent cooling across São Paulo, with official forecasts and model guidance showing overnight lows on September 7 likely ranging from 7–12°C amid mostly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and light precipitation chances. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs reflect uncertainty in exact minimum temperatures, as radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of coldest air can shift outcomes by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical lows near 13–15°C, making this outbreak notable; traders assign the highest implied probability to 5°C or below due to downside risks from stronger-than-expected cooling, while mid-range outcomes around 10–11°C capture the consensus central tendency ahead of final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 7?
5°C or below 69%
15°C or higher 69%
12°C 49%
10°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
5°C or below
69%
6°C
20%
7°C
20%
8°C
26%
9°C
26%
10°C
30%
11°C
29%
12°C
49%
13°C
25%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
69%
5°C or below 69%
15°C or higher 69%
12°C 49%
10°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
6°C
$0 Vol.
20%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
30%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front and subsequent polar air mass advection have driven recent cooling across São Paulo, with official forecasts and model guidance showing overnight lows on September 7 likely ranging from 7–12°C amid mostly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and light precipitation chances. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs reflect uncertainty in exact minimum temperatures, as radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of coldest air can shift outcomes by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical lows near 13–15°C, making this outbreak notable; traders assign the highest implied probability to 5°C or below due to downside risks from stronger-than-expected cooling, while mid-range outcomes around 10–11°C capture the consensus central tendency ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front and subsequent polar air mass advection have driven recent cooling across São Paulo, with official forecasts and model guidance showing overnight lows on September 7 likely ranging from 7–12°C amid mostly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and light precipitation chances. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs reflect uncertainty in exact minimum temperatures, as radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of coldest air can shift outcomes by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical lows near 13–15°C, making this outbreak notable; traders assign the highest implied probability to 5°C or below due to downside risks from stronger-than-expected cooling, while mid-range outcomes around 10–11°C capture the consensus central tendency ahead of final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cold front and subsequent polar air mass advection have driven recent cooling across São Paulo, with official forecasts and model guidance showing overnight lows on September 7 likely ranging from 7–12°C amid mostly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and light precipitation chances. Ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS runs reflect uncertainty in exact minimum temperatures, as radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of coldest air can shift outcomes by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical lows near 13–15°C, making this outbreak notable; traders assign the highest implied probability to 5°C or below due to downside risks from stronger-than-expected cooling, while mid-range outcomes around 10–11°C capture the consensus central tendency ahead of final model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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