A cold front advancing from southern Brazil reached São Paulo overnight on September 4–5, 2026, introducing persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and a sharp temperature drop that set the daily minimum. Official forecasts from INMET and the city’s CGE highlighted overnight lows near 15°C with daytime peaks around 22–24°C, while some models projected brief dips to 13–14°C amid the frontal passage and elevated humidity. This narrow range produced the market’s tight split between 15°C and 14°C outcomes, as traders weighed station-specific readings against the front’s exact timing and any localized cooling from rainfall. Historical September minima for the city average near 14–15°C, so the event aligned with seasonal norms but hinged on precise observational thresholds for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
14°C 94%
13°C 5%
12°C or below 1.0%
16°C <1%
$780 Vol.
$780 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
14°C 94%
13°C 5%
12°C or below 1.0%
16°C <1%
$780 Vol.
$780 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
$67 Vol.
No
13°C
$37 Vol.
No
14°C
$37 Vol.
No
15°C
$52 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$137 Vol.
No
17°C
$150 Vol.
No
18°C
$72 Vol.
No
19°C
$72 Vol.
No
20°C
$52 Vol.
No
21°C
$52 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$52 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing from southern Brazil reached São Paulo overnight on September 4–5, 2026, introducing persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and a sharp temperature drop that set the daily minimum. Official forecasts from INMET and the city’s CGE highlighted overnight lows near 15°C with daytime peaks around 22–24°C, while some models projected brief dips to 13–14°C amid the frontal passage and elevated humidity. This narrow range produced the market’s tight split between 15°C and 14°C outcomes, as traders weighed station-specific readings against the front’s exact timing and any localized cooling from rainfall. Historical September minima for the city average near 14–15°C, so the event aligned with seasonal norms but hinged on precise observational thresholds for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$780End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing from southern Brazil reached São Paulo overnight on September 4–5, 2026, introducing persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and a sharp temperature drop that set the daily minimum. Official forecasts from INMET and the city’s CGE highlighted overnight lows near 15°C with daytime peaks around 22–24°C, while some models projected brief dips to 13–14°C amid the frontal passage and elevated humidity. This narrow range produced the market’s tight split between 15°C and 14°C outcomes, as traders weighed station-specific readings against the front’s exact timing and any localized cooling from rainfall. Historical September minima for the city average near 14–15°C, so the event aligned with seasonal norms but hinged on precise observational thresholds for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$780End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A cold front advancing from southern Brazil reached São Paulo overnight on September 4–5, 2026, introducing persistent cloud cover, light to moderate rain, and a sharp temperature drop that set the daily minimum. Official forecasts from INMET and the city’s CGE highlighted overnight lows near 15°C with daytime peaks around 22–24°C, while some models projected brief dips to 13–14°C amid the frontal passage and elevated humidity. This narrow range produced the market’s tight split between 15°C and 14°C outcomes, as traders weighed station-specific readings against the front’s exact timing and any localized cooling from rainfall. Historical September minima for the city average near 14–15°C, so the event aligned with seasonal norms but hinged on precise observational thresholds for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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