**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models project a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with most guidance centering on 98°F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's strong preference for the 98-99°F bin (59.5% implied probability) over 100-101°F (40.0%), as September climatology shows an average daily high near 93-94°F and recent model runs have not indicated significant additional warming. Low precipitation chances and modest humidity support efficient daytime heating, but afternoon cloud cover and the timing of peak insolation limit upside potential beyond the mid-to-upper 90s. Traders appear to weigh official NWS guidance and airport observations most heavily, with the 100°F threshold requiring an unusually strong heat burst or model error. Updated hourly readings from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will resolve the market as the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 5?
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 44%
96-97°F 9.3%
104°F or higher <1%
$52,188 Vol.
$52,188 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
47%
100-101°F
44%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
1%
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 44%
96-97°F 9.3%
104°F or higher <1%
$52,188 Vol.
$52,188 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
$1,416 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$943 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$870 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$309 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$25,287 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$7,493 Vol.
9%
98-99°F
$4,848 Vol.
47%
100-101°F
$2,798 Vol.
44%
102-103°F
$5,076 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$2,077 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models project a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with most guidance centering on 98°F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's strong preference for the 98-99°F bin (59.5% implied probability) over 100-101°F (40.0%), as September climatology shows an average daily high near 93-94°F and recent model runs have not indicated significant additional warming. Low precipitation chances and modest humidity support efficient daytime heating, but afternoon cloud cover and the timing of peak insolation limit upside potential beyond the mid-to-upper 90s. Traders appear to weigh official NWS guidance and airport observations most heavily, with the 100°F threshold requiring an unusually strong heat burst or model error. Updated hourly readings from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will resolve the market as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$52,188End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models project a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with most guidance centering on 98°F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's strong preference for the 98-99°F bin (59.5% implied probability) over 100-101°F (40.0%), as September climatology shows an average daily high near 93-94°F and recent model runs have not indicated significant additional warming. Low precipitation chances and modest humidity support efficient daytime heating, but afternoon cloud cover and the timing of peak insolation limit upside potential beyond the mid-to-upper 90s. Traders appear to weigh official NWS guidance and airport observations most heavily, with the 100°F threshold requiring an unusually strong heat burst or model error. Updated hourly readings from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will resolve the market as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$52,188End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models project a high temperature in the upper 90s for Austin on September 5, 2026, with most guidance centering on 98°F under partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds.** This aligns with the market's strong preference for the 98-99°F bin (59.5% implied probability) over 100-101°F (40.0%), as September climatology shows an average daily high near 93-94°F and recent model runs have not indicated significant additional warming. Low precipitation chances and modest humidity support efficient daytime heating, but afternoon cloud cover and the timing of peak insolation limit upside potential beyond the mid-to-upper 90s. Traders appear to weigh official NWS guidance and airport observations most heavily, with the 100°F threshold requiring an unusually strong heat burst or model error. Updated hourly readings from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will resolve the market as the day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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