Official National Weather Service observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 95% implied probability for the 72-73°F bin. Light southeast winds, clear skies, and above-average humidity limited radiative cooling overnight, producing a low just 3°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 70°F and well above historical September 5 records near 56°F. Traders appear to have incorporated the preliminary climate summary issued the following morning, which confirmed the reading with no significant model revisions or measurement discrepancies noted. A challenge to this outcome would require an alternative official station reporting a meaningfully lower value or a post-event data correction, both of which remain unlikely given consistent station reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 5?
68-69°F 99%
70-71°F 96%
72-73°F 95%
67°F or below 42%
$8,809 Vol.
$8,809 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
42%
68-69°F
99%
70-71°F
96%
72-73°F
95%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 99%
70-71°F 96%
72-73°F 95%
67°F or below 42%
$8,809 Vol.
$8,809 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
67°F or below
$12 Vol.
42%
68-69°F
$12 Vol.
99%
70-71°F
$42 Vol.
96%
72-73°F
$392 Vol.
95%
74-75°F
$7,806 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$176 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$94 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$109 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$47 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$47 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$72 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 95% implied probability for the 72-73°F bin. Light southeast winds, clear skies, and above-average humidity limited radiative cooling overnight, producing a low just 3°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 70°F and well above historical September 5 records near 56°F. Traders appear to have incorporated the preliminary climate summary issued the following morning, which confirmed the reading with no significant model revisions or measurement discrepancies noted. A challenge to this outcome would require an alternative official station reporting a meaningfully lower value or a post-event data correction, both of which remain unlikely given consistent station reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,809End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 95% implied probability for the 72-73°F bin. Light southeast winds, clear skies, and above-average humidity limited radiative cooling overnight, producing a low just 3°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 70°F and well above historical September 5 records near 56°F. Traders appear to have incorporated the preliminary climate summary issued the following morning, which confirmed the reading with no significant model revisions or measurement discrepancies noted. A challenge to this outcome would require an alternative official station reporting a meaningfully lower value or a post-event data correction, both of which remain unlikely given consistent station reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,809End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service observations from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 95% implied probability for the 72-73°F bin. Light southeast winds, clear skies, and above-average humidity limited radiative cooling overnight, producing a low just 3°F above the 1991-2020 normal of 70°F and well above historical September 5 records near 56°F. Traders appear to have incorporated the preliminary climate summary issued the following morning, which confirmed the reading with no significant model revisions or measurement discrepancies noted. A challenge to this outcome would require an alternative official station reporting a meaningfully lower value or a post-event data correction, both of which remain unlikely given consistent station reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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