**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for a 32°C high on September 5 in Hong Kong stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading at its headquarters station, which directly resolves the market.** This outcome aligns with observed conditions of partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light winds typical for early September in the region, where urban heat island effects and solar heating under variable cloud cover can push peaks into the low 30s even amid brief rain. Historical climatology shows September maxima often reach 30–32°C, providing context for the result. Realistic challenges to the 32°C figure are minimal at this stage but could include a rare post-event data revision by the Observatory due to instrument calibration or station-specific anomalies, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary values are released. No further forecast updates or model runs will alter the recorded observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 5?
32°C 99.9%
33°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
$124,002 Vol.
$124,002 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.9%
33°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
$124,002 Vol.
$124,002 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$4,335 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$987 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,297 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5,884 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$18,356 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$26,244 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$29,018 Vol.
100%
33°C
$28,983 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$6,154 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for a 32°C high on September 5 in Hong Kong stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading at its headquarters station, which directly resolves the market.**
This outcome aligns with observed conditions of partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light winds typical for early September in the region, where urban heat island effects and solar heating under variable cloud cover can push peaks into the low 30s even amid brief rain. Historical climatology shows September maxima often reach 30–32°C, providing context for the result.
Realistic challenges to the 32°C figure are minimal at this stage but could include a rare post-event data revision by the Observatory due to instrument calibration or station-specific anomalies, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary values are released. No further forecast updates or model runs will alter the recorded observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$124,002End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for a 32°C high on September 5 in Hong Kong stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading at its headquarters station, which directly resolves the market.**
This outcome aligns with observed conditions of partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light winds typical for early September in the region, where urban heat island effects and solar heating under variable cloud cover can push peaks into the low 30s even amid brief rain. Historical climatology shows September maxima often reach 30–32°C, providing context for the result.
Realistic challenges to the 32°C figure are minimal at this stage but could include a rare post-event data revision by the Observatory due to instrument calibration or station-specific anomalies, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary values are released. No further forecast updates or model runs will alter the recorded observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$124,002End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for a 32°C high on September 5 in Hong Kong stems from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading at its headquarters station, which directly resolves the market.** This outcome aligns with observed conditions of partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light winds typical for early September in the region, where urban heat island effects and solar heating under variable cloud cover can push peaks into the low 30s even amid brief rain. Historical climatology shows September maxima often reach 30–32°C, providing context for the result. Realistic challenges to the 32°C figure are minimal at this stage but could include a rare post-event data revision by the Observatory due to instrument calibration or station-specific anomalies, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary values are released. No further forecast updates or model runs will alter the recorded observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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