Traders assign overwhelming implied probability to a 31°C high in Hong Kong on September 4, reflecting official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that peak under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest winds. This outcome aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where maximum temperatures frequently reach the low 30s Celsius absent strong monsoon or typhoon influence. Recent model consensus and real-time station data from the observatory reinforced the reading well before market close, leaving minimal room for alternative thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational uncertainty, though such adjustments remain rare for established HKO records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$206,744 Vol.
$206,744 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$206,744 Vol.
$206,744 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$16,110 Vol.
No
24°C
$214 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,388 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,120 Vol.
No
27°C
$10,273 Vol.
No
28°C
$15,369 Vol.
No
29°C
$29,475 Vol.
No
30°C
$32,518 Vol.
No
31°C
$49,962 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$32,075 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$17,241 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign overwhelming implied probability to a 31°C high in Hong Kong on September 4, reflecting official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that peak under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest winds. This outcome aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where maximum temperatures frequently reach the low 30s Celsius absent strong monsoon or typhoon influence. Recent model consensus and real-time station data from the observatory reinforced the reading well before market close, leaving minimal room for alternative thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational uncertainty, though such adjustments remain rare for established HKO records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$206,744End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign overwhelming implied probability to a 31°C high in Hong Kong on September 4, reflecting official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that peak under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest winds. This outcome aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where maximum temperatures frequently reach the low 30s Celsius absent strong monsoon or typhoon influence. Recent model consensus and real-time station data from the observatory reinforced the reading well before market close, leaving minimal room for alternative thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational uncertainty, though such adjustments remain rare for established HKO records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$206,744End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign overwhelming implied probability to a 31°C high in Hong Kong on September 4, reflecting official Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that peak under partly cloudy conditions with light northwest winds. This outcome aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where maximum temperatures frequently reach the low 30s Celsius absent strong monsoon or typhoon influence. Recent model consensus and real-time station data from the observatory reinforced the reading well before market close, leaving minimal room for alternative thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a post-event data revision or station-specific anomaly exceeding normal observational uncertainty, though such adjustments remain rare for established HKO records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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