Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show San Francisco's September 9 low potentially ranging from the mid-50s to upper 60s, driving the near-even market split between sub-56°F and 74°F+ outcomes. Key variables include the depth and persistence of the marine layer, which promotes overnight radiative cooling and fog under onshore flow, versus any weakening of the North Pacific High that could allow clearer skies or warmer downslope air. Recent early-September observations indicate typical seasonal lows near 56–61°F with limited warming so far, while partial clearing on the 9th could raise minimums. Updated model consensus on cloud cover and wind patterns over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
55°F or below 88%
74°F or higher 88%
56-57°F 49%
58-59°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
88%
56-57°F
49%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
28%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
49%
74°F or higher
88%
55°F or below 88%
74°F or higher 88%
56-57°F 49%
58-59°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
88%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
49%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
28%
66-67°F
$260 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show San Francisco's September 9 low potentially ranging from the mid-50s to upper 60s, driving the near-even market split between sub-56°F and 74°F+ outcomes. Key variables include the depth and persistence of the marine layer, which promotes overnight radiative cooling and fog under onshore flow, versus any weakening of the North Pacific High that could allow clearer skies or warmer downslope air. Recent early-September observations indicate typical seasonal lows near 56–61°F with limited warming so far, while partial clearing on the 9th could raise minimums. Updated model consensus on cloud cover and wind patterns over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show San Francisco's September 9 low potentially ranging from the mid-50s to upper 60s, driving the near-even market split between sub-56°F and 74°F+ outcomes. Key variables include the depth and persistence of the marine layer, which promotes overnight radiative cooling and fog under onshore flow, versus any weakening of the North Pacific High that could allow clearer skies or warmer downslope air. Recent early-September observations indicate typical seasonal lows near 56–61°F with limited warming so far, while partial clearing on the 9th could raise minimums. Updated model consensus on cloud cover and wind patterns over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show San Francisco's September 9 low potentially ranging from the mid-50s to upper 60s, driving the near-even market split between sub-56°F and 74°F+ outcomes. Key variables include the depth and persistence of the marine layer, which promotes overnight radiative cooling and fog under onshore flow, versus any weakening of the North Pacific High that could allow clearer skies or warmer downslope air. Recent early-September observations indicate typical seasonal lows near 56–61°F with limited warming so far, while partial clearing on the 9th could raise minimums. Updated model consensus on cloud cover and wind patterns over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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