Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 9, with downtown highs forecast near 84°F under partly cloudy conditions and light onshore flow, while SFO and inland areas could reach the upper 80s. This setup, driven by a strengthening thermal trough and reduced marine layer influence, supports the market’s clustering around 90–93°F outcomes. Key variables include exact timing of any onshore breeze shift, cloud cover from the marine layer, and model spread in boundary-layer mixing; stronger high pressure could push readings into the mid-90s, whereas persistent stratus or stronger winds would cap maxima closer to 86–88°F. Historical September extremes near 100°F underscore the potential for rapid adjustments as new model runs arrive before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
90-91°F 31%
92-93°F 21%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
31%
92-93°F
21%
94-95°F
7%
96°F or higher
5%
90-91°F 31%
92-93°F 21%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
$237 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$79 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$251 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$192 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$158 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$272 Vol.
19%
90-91°F
$578 Vol.
31%
92-93°F
$269 Vol.
21%
94-95°F
$558 Vol.
7%
96°F or higher
$826 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 9, with downtown highs forecast near 84°F under partly cloudy conditions and light onshore flow, while SFO and inland areas could reach the upper 80s. This setup, driven by a strengthening thermal trough and reduced marine layer influence, supports the market’s clustering around 90–93°F outcomes. Key variables include exact timing of any onshore breeze shift, cloud cover from the marine layer, and model spread in boundary-layer mixing; stronger high pressure could push readings into the mid-90s, whereas persistent stratus or stronger winds would cap maxima closer to 86–88°F. Historical September extremes near 100°F underscore the potential for rapid adjustments as new model runs arrive before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,402End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 9, with downtown highs forecast near 84°F under partly cloudy conditions and light onshore flow, while SFO and inland areas could reach the upper 80s. This setup, driven by a strengthening thermal trough and reduced marine layer influence, supports the market’s clustering around 90–93°F outcomes. Key variables include exact timing of any onshore breeze shift, cloud cover from the marine layer, and model spread in boundary-layer mixing; stronger high pressure could push readings into the mid-90s, whereas persistent stratus or stronger winds would cap maxima closer to 86–88°F. Historical September extremes near 100°F underscore the potential for rapid adjustments as new model runs arrive before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,402End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a warming trend for San Francisco on September 9, with downtown highs forecast near 84°F under partly cloudy conditions and light onshore flow, while SFO and inland areas could reach the upper 80s. This setup, driven by a strengthening thermal trough and reduced marine layer influence, supports the market’s clustering around 90–93°F outcomes. Key variables include exact timing of any onshore breeze shift, cloud cover from the marine layer, and model spread in boundary-layer mixing; stronger high pressure could push readings into the mid-90s, whereas persistent stratus or stronger winds would cap maxima closer to 86–88°F. Historical September extremes near 100°F underscore the potential for rapid adjustments as new model runs arrive before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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