The market-implied 96.1% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the current Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak's confinement primarily to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 6,300 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths have been reported since May, with limited secondary transmission in Uganda and a single imported case in France. Official assessments from WHO and CDC classify global risk as low due to the virus's requirement for direct contact with bodily fluids, declining effective reproduction number below 1.5 in recent weeks, and absence of sustained community transmission outside affected provinces. Historical Ebola patterns and surveillance data further support containment without intercontinental escalation. A shift would require unexpected widespread exportation or failure of isolation and contact-tracing efforts amid ongoing insecurity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$720,213 Vol.
$720,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$720,213 Vol.
$720,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied 96.1% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the current Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak's confinement primarily to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 6,300 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths have been reported since May, with limited secondary transmission in Uganda and a single imported case in France. Official assessments from WHO and CDC classify global risk as low due to the virus's requirement for direct contact with bodily fluids, declining effective reproduction number below 1.5 in recent weeks, and absence of sustained community transmission outside affected provinces. Historical Ebola patterns and surveillance data further support containment without intercontinental escalation. A shift would require unexpected widespread exportation or failure of isolation and contact-tracing efforts amid ongoing insecurity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$720,213End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market-implied 96.1% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the current Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak's confinement primarily to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 6,300 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths have been reported since May, with limited secondary transmission in Uganda and a single imported case in France. Official assessments from WHO and CDC classify global risk as low due to the virus's requirement for direct contact with bodily fluids, declining effective reproduction number below 1.5 in recent weeks, and absence of sustained community transmission outside affected provinces. Historical Ebola patterns and surveillance data further support containment without intercontinental escalation. A shift would require unexpected widespread exportation or failure of isolation and contact-tracing efforts amid ongoing insecurity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$720,213End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 96.1% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the current Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak's confinement primarily to eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 6,300 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths have been reported since May, with limited secondary transmission in Uganda and a single imported case in France. Official assessments from WHO and CDC classify global risk as low due to the virus's requirement for direct contact with bodily fluids, declining effective reproduction number below 1.5 in recent weeks, and absence of sustained community transmission outside affected provinces. Historical Ebola patterns and surveillance data further support containment without intercontinental escalation. A shift would require unexpected widespread exportation or failure of isolation and contact-tracing efforts amid ongoing insecurity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions