Trader consensus on no new pandemic in 2026 at 94.5% reflects the absence of any pathogen meeting WHO pandemic criteria despite multiple outbreaks. The Bundibugyo virus Ebola epidemic in the DRC and Uganda, declared a PHEIC in May 2026 with thousands of cases, shows sustained but regionally contained transmission requiring direct contact, with modeling indicating high risk only under poor isolation. Global SARS-CoV-2 activity remains low and endemic, while contained events such as the hantavirus cruise ship cluster and scattered avian influenza or Nipah reports lack efficient human-to-human spread. Key upcoming factors include intensified Africa CDC-WHO response plans through November and ongoing surveillance for variant emergence or geographic expansion that could alter trajectories.