**Strong El Niño conditions and sustained ocean heat content have anchored trader consensus on a 1.38–1.41 °C August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56 °C, while record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures of 21.1 °C in late August—driven by an intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.4 °C—support continued warmth without pushing the monthly mean into the next bin. Satellite lower-troposphere data from UAH confirm a +0.68 °C August anomaly relative to 1991–2020, consistent with surface estimates in the targeted range once converted to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming final ERA5 and NOAA releases in mid-September, along with any revisions to ENSO strength, represent the main variables that could shift probabilities if model runs diverge sharply from current observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Vol.
$20,482 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,484 Vol.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,219 Vol.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions and sustained ocean heat content have anchored trader consensus on a 1.38–1.41 °C August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56 °C, while record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures of 21.1 °C in late August—driven by an intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.4 °C—support continued warmth without pushing the monthly mean into the next bin. Satellite lower-troposphere data from UAH confirm a +0.68 °C August anomaly relative to 1991–2020, consistent with surface estimates in the targeted range once converted to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming final ERA5 and NOAA releases in mid-September, along with any revisions to ENSO strength, represent the main variables that could shift probabilities if model runs diverge sharply from current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,482End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions and sustained ocean heat content have anchored trader consensus on a 1.38–1.41 °C August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56 °C, while record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures of 21.1 °C in late August—driven by an intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.4 °C—support continued warmth without pushing the monthly mean into the next bin. Satellite lower-troposphere data from UAH confirm a +0.68 °C August anomaly relative to 1991–2020, consistent with surface estimates in the targeted range once converted to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming final ERA5 and NOAA releases in mid-September, along with any revisions to ENSO strength, represent the main variables that could shift probabilities if model runs diverge sharply from current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,482End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions and sustained ocean heat content have anchored trader consensus on a 1.38–1.41 °C August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56 °C, while record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures of 21.1 °C in late August—driven by an intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.4 °C—support continued warmth without pushing the monthly mean into the next bin. Satellite lower-troposphere data from UAH confirm a +0.68 °C August anomaly relative to 1991–2020, consistent with surface estimates in the targeted range once converted to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming final ERA5 and NOAA releases in mid-September, along with any revisions to ENSO strength, represent the main variables that could shift probabilities if model runs diverge sharply from current observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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