Trader consensus favoring “No” at 75.5% implied probability reflects the absence of any 5-kiloton or greater bolide through early September 2026, despite continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects. Historical flux data indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kt occur on average about once per year, yet actual events cluster irregularly, with many years recording none; recent 2026 fireballs have all registered well below 1 kt. No catalogued asteroids or comets are on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold before year-end, and refined orbital solutions continue to rule out undetected threats. Residual uncertainty centers on possible small, high-speed fragments missed by surveys, though such objects would need to evade multiple detection networks in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
25% chance
$313,717 Vol.
$313,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% chance
$313,717 Vol.
$313,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favoring “No” at 75.5% implied probability reflects the absence of any 5-kiloton or greater bolide through early September 2026, despite continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects. Historical flux data indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kt occur on average about once per year, yet actual events cluster irregularly, with many years recording none; recent 2026 fireballs have all registered well below 1 kt. No catalogued asteroids or comets are on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold before year-end, and refined orbital solutions continue to rule out undetected threats. Residual uncertainty centers on possible small, high-speed fragments missed by surveys, though such objects would need to evade multiple detection networks in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favoring “No” at 75.5% implied probability reflects the absence of any 5-kiloton or greater bolide through early September 2026, despite continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects. Historical flux data indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kt occur on average about once per year, yet actual events cluster irregularly, with many years recording none; recent 2026 fireballs have all registered well below 1 kt. No catalogued asteroids or comets are on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold before year-end, and refined orbital solutions continue to rule out undetected threats. Residual uncertainty centers on possible small, high-speed fragments missed by surveys, though such objects would need to evade multiple detection networks in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring “No” at 75.5% implied probability reflects the absence of any 5-kiloton or greater bolide through early September 2026, despite continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects. Historical flux data indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kt occur on average about once per year, yet actual events cluster irregularly, with many years recording none; recent 2026 fireballs have all registered well below 1 kt. No catalogued asteroids or comets are on collision trajectories capable of reaching this energy threshold before year-end, and refined orbital solutions continue to rule out undetected threats. Residual uncertainty centers on possible small, high-speed fragments missed by surveys, though such objects would need to evade multiple detection networks in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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