Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no cataloged asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy in 2026. Risk lists updated as recently as September list only low-probability events years away, with cumulative impact odds for known objects remaining below 1 in hundreds or thousands. Ongoing surveys, including recent close-approach data for small meter-scale bodies, continue to refine orbits without elevating alerts, while historical patterns confirm that undetected large impactors are rare. Traders assign the 88% “No” probability because comprehensive detection networks and absence of credible near-term threats outweigh residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects. Key catalysts ahead include continued LSST observations and any new radar tracking that could further tighten these assessments.