Elevated preliminary tornado reports through late August 2026, totaling 1,399 according to the Storm Prediction Center, have driven the strong market consensus for a 1,250+ annual total. Activity surged well above climatological norms in spring and early summer, with Illinois alone logging over 200 confirmed tornadoes—more than triple its typical yearly average—amid a northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Official NWS data show above-average counts in March, April, and June, consistent with favorable thermodynamic instability and shear patterns. Remaining months typically add fewer events, yet current observations make totals below 1,250 unlikely absent major downward revisions. Traders are monitoring September updates from NOAA and the SPC for any late-season tropical or frontal influences that could further elevate the final verified count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 6.9%
1150–1199 4.0%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,139 Vol.
$82,139 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 6.9%
1150–1199 4.0%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,139 Vol.
$82,139 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,728 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,619 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
7%
1250+
$18,916 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through late August 2026, totaling 1,399 according to the Storm Prediction Center, have driven the strong market consensus for a 1,250+ annual total. Activity surged well above climatological norms in spring and early summer, with Illinois alone logging over 200 confirmed tornadoes—more than triple its typical yearly average—amid a northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Official NWS data show above-average counts in March, April, and June, consistent with favorable thermodynamic instability and shear patterns. Remaining months typically add fewer events, yet current observations make totals below 1,250 unlikely absent major downward revisions. Traders are monitoring September updates from NOAA and the SPC for any late-season tropical or frontal influences that could further elevate the final verified count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$82,139End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through late August 2026, totaling 1,399 according to the Storm Prediction Center, have driven the strong market consensus for a 1,250+ annual total. Activity surged well above climatological norms in spring and early summer, with Illinois alone logging over 200 confirmed tornadoes—more than triple its typical yearly average—amid a northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Official NWS data show above-average counts in March, April, and June, consistent with favorable thermodynamic instability and shear patterns. Remaining months typically add fewer events, yet current observations make totals below 1,250 unlikely absent major downward revisions. Traders are monitoring September updates from NOAA and the SPC for any late-season tropical or frontal influences that could further elevate the final verified count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$82,139End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated preliminary tornado reports through late August 2026, totaling 1,399 according to the Storm Prediction Center, have driven the strong market consensus for a 1,250+ annual total. Activity surged well above climatological norms in spring and early summer, with Illinois alone logging over 200 confirmed tornadoes—more than triple its typical yearly average—amid a northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Official NWS data show above-average counts in March, April, and June, consistent with favorable thermodynamic instability and shear patterns. Remaining months typically add fewer events, yet current observations make totals below 1,250 unlikely absent major downward revisions. Traders are monitoring September updates from NOAA and the SPC for any late-season tropical or frontal influences that could further elevate the final verified count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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