The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's below-normal outlook, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress development, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. As of early September, only five named storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below climatological norms for peak activity months. Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season and assign roughly 24% odds of any major U.S. landfall, far below the long-term average near 43%. With the season's remaining window limited and steering patterns favoring reduced intensification, traders assign high confidence to the absence of a Category 4 event through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$341,111 Vol.
$341,111 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$341,111 Vol.
$341,111 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's below-normal outlook, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress development, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. As of early September, only five named storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below climatological norms for peak activity months. Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season and assign roughly 24% odds of any major U.S. landfall, far below the long-term average near 43%. With the season's remaining window limited and steering patterns favoring reduced intensification, traders assign high confidence to the absence of a Category 4 event through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$341,111End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's below-normal outlook, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress development, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. As of early September, only five named storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below climatological norms for peak activity months. Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season and assign roughly 24% odds of any major U.S. landfall, far below the long-term average near 43%. With the season's remaining window limited and steering patterns favoring reduced intensification, traders assign high confidence to the absence of a Category 4 event through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$341,111End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's below-normal outlook, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress development, underpins the 84.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. As of early September, only five named storms have formed with zero hurricanes, well below climatological norms for peak activity months. Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season and assign roughly 24% odds of any major U.S. landfall, far below the long-term average near 43%. With the season's remaining window limited and steering patterns favoring reduced intensification, traders assign high confidence to the absence of a Category 4 event through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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