Recent NSIDC observations show August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers, seventh-lowest on record, with melt tracking near 2012 levels early but slowing due to cooler high-latitude temperatures offsetting warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago. This positions the September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market’s tight 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins. Differentiation between these outcomes hinges on remaining melt-season weather variability, including storm activity and regional air temperatures that influence ice-albedo feedback and peripheral sea melt rates. Official forecasts emphasize uncertainty from divergent model runs, with historical analogs from post-2010 years suggesting the minimum will likely fall within the established low range absent an extreme late-summer warm anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 41.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 6.5%
4.8-5m sq km 5.2%
4.0-4.2m sq km 4.2%
$74,728 Vol.
$74,728 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
4%
4.2-4.4m sq km
40%
4.4-4.6m sq km
50%
4.6-4.8m sq km
7%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 41.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 6.5%
4.8-5m sq km 5.2%
4.0-4.2m sq km 4.2%
$74,728 Vol.
$74,728 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,042 Vol.
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,277 Vol.
4%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,468 Vol.
40%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,655 Vol.
50%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$8,289 Vol.
7%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,166 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,830 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC observations show August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers, seventh-lowest on record, with melt tracking near 2012 levels early but slowing due to cooler high-latitude temperatures offsetting warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago. This positions the September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market’s tight 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins. Differentiation between these outcomes hinges on remaining melt-season weather variability, including storm activity and regional air temperatures that influence ice-albedo feedback and peripheral sea melt rates. Official forecasts emphasize uncertainty from divergent model runs, with historical analogs from post-2010 years suggesting the minimum will likely fall within the established low range absent an extreme late-summer warm anomaly.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$74,728End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC observations show August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers, seventh-lowest on record, with melt tracking near 2012 levels early but slowing due to cooler high-latitude temperatures offsetting warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago. This positions the September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market’s tight 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins. Differentiation between these outcomes hinges on remaining melt-season weather variability, including storm activity and regional air temperatures that influence ice-albedo feedback and peripheral sea melt rates. Official forecasts emphasize uncertainty from divergent model runs, with historical analogs from post-2010 years suggesting the minimum will likely fall within the established low range absent an extreme late-summer warm anomaly.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$74,728End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NSIDC observations show August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers, seventh-lowest on record, with melt tracking near 2012 levels early but slowing due to cooler high-latitude temperatures offsetting warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago. This positions the September minimum near 4.3–4.5 million square kilometers, aligning with the market’s tight 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer bins. Differentiation between these outcomes hinges on remaining melt-season weather variability, including storm activity and regional air temperatures that influence ice-albedo feedback and peripheral sea melt rates. Official forecasts emphasize uncertainty from divergent model runs, with historical analogs from post-2010 years suggesting the minimum will likely fall within the established low range absent an extreme late-summer warm anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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