Latest Met Office forecasts and numerical weather prediction model consensus indicate a daytime maximum of 23°C for London on September 5 under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, driving the market-implied odds near 100% for that outcome. This aligns with current observational data showing temperatures climbing toward that threshold without significant convective activity or stronger winds that could suppress the peak. Historical early-September baselines in the region typically range 18–22°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as unlikely. Minor forecast revisions from additional model runs or localized station variations remain the primary factors that could realistically shift the recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 5?
Highest temperature in London on September 5?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$90,369 Vol.
$90,369 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$90,369 Vol.
$90,369 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$1,073 Vol.
No
19°C
$250 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,950 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,542 Vol.
No
22°C
$20,870 Vol.
No
23°C
$18,175 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$26,475 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,914 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,219 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,491 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$3,411 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office forecasts and numerical weather prediction model consensus indicate a daytime maximum of 23°C for London on September 5 under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, driving the market-implied odds near 100% for that outcome. This aligns with current observational data showing temperatures climbing toward that threshold without significant convective activity or stronger winds that could suppress the peak. Historical early-September baselines in the region typically range 18–22°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as unlikely. Minor forecast revisions from additional model runs or localized station variations remain the primary factors that could realistically shift the recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$90,369End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office forecasts and numerical weather prediction model consensus indicate a daytime maximum of 23°C for London on September 5 under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, driving the market-implied odds near 100% for that outcome. This aligns with current observational data showing temperatures climbing toward that threshold without significant convective activity or stronger winds that could suppress the peak. Historical early-September baselines in the region typically range 18–22°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as unlikely. Minor forecast revisions from additional model runs or localized station variations remain the primary factors that could realistically shift the recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$90,369End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest Met Office forecasts and numerical weather prediction model consensus indicate a daytime maximum of 23°C for London on September 5 under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, driving the market-implied odds near 100% for that outcome. This aligns with current observational data showing temperatures climbing toward that threshold without significant convective activity or stronger winds that could suppress the peak. Historical early-September baselines in the region typically range 18–22°C, providing context for why traders view deviations as unlikely. Minor forecast revisions from additional model runs or localized station variations remain the primary factors that could realistically shift the recorded high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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