Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
98-99°F 100.0%
85°F or below <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$61,772 Vol.
$61,772 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
Yes
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104°F or higher
No
98-99°F 100.0%
85°F or below <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$61,772 Vol.
$61,772 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
$1,394 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$298 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$442 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$436 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$1,286 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$15,976 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$11,754 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$10,918 Vol.
Yes
100-101°F
$9,103 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$6,618 Vol.
No
104°F or higher
$3,546 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$61,772End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61,772End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions