Global seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS shows no confirmed magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, aligning with the market's 85.5% implied probability for zero events. This quiet interval follows clustered activity earlier in August, including multiple M6.5+ quakes in Indonesia and South America, consistent with normal spatiotemporal variability in tectonic release rather than a sustained lull. On average, roughly 45–50 such events occur annually worldwide (about 0.9 per week), but short-term rates fluctuate due to aftershock sequences, subduction zone dynamics, and measurement thresholds on the moment magnitude scale. With the period now closed, final USGS catalog verification will resolve the market without further model-driven shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
0 86%
1 13%
2 2.0%
3 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
86%
1
13%
2
2%
3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
<1%
0 86%
1 13%
2 2.0%
3 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
$6,365 Vol.
86%
1
$1,059 Vol.
13%
2
$1,155 Vol.
2%
3
$301 Vol.
1%
4
$156 Vol.
1%
5
$287 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$260 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS shows no confirmed magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, aligning with the market's 85.5% implied probability for zero events. This quiet interval follows clustered activity earlier in August, including multiple M6.5+ quakes in Indonesia and South America, consistent with normal spatiotemporal variability in tectonic release rather than a sustained lull. On average, roughly 45–50 such events occur annually worldwide (about 0.9 per week), but short-term rates fluctuate due to aftershock sequences, subduction zone dynamics, and measurement thresholds on the moment magnitude scale. With the period now closed, final USGS catalog verification will resolve the market without further model-driven shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$9,584End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS shows no confirmed magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, aligning with the market's 85.5% implied probability for zero events. This quiet interval follows clustered activity earlier in August, including multiple M6.5+ quakes in Indonesia and South America, consistent with normal spatiotemporal variability in tectonic release rather than a sustained lull. On average, roughly 45–50 such events occur annually worldwide (about 0.9 per week), but short-term rates fluctuate due to aftershock sequences, subduction zone dynamics, and measurement thresholds on the moment magnitude scale. With the period now closed, final USGS catalog verification will resolve the market without further model-driven shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$9,584End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS shows no confirmed magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, aligning with the market's 85.5% implied probability for zero events. This quiet interval follows clustered activity earlier in August, including multiple M6.5+ quakes in Indonesia and South America, consistent with normal spatiotemporal variability in tectonic release rather than a sustained lull. On average, roughly 45–50 such events occur annually worldwide (about 0.9 per week), but short-term rates fluctuate due to aftershock sequences, subduction zone dynamics, and measurement thresholds on the moment magnitude scale. With the period now closed, final USGS catalog verification will resolve the market without further model-driven shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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