**No** at 82.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the year’s largest recorded events—double earthquakes near Venezuela (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), a 7.7 quake in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia—fall well short of the 8.5 threshold, while Atlantic hurricane activity has produced no qualifying U.S. landfalls. These thresholds are historically rare; only a handful of 8.5+ quakes and Cat 5 U.S. strikes have occurred in recent decades. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and ongoing global seismic and volcanic surveillance, traders are pricing the remaining months as unlikely to produce one of these specific high-impact events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
18% chance
$245,417 Vol.
$245,417 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
$245,417 Vol.
$245,417 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** at 82.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the year’s largest recorded events—double earthquakes near Venezuela (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), a 7.7 quake in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia—fall well short of the 8.5 threshold, while Atlantic hurricane activity has produced no qualifying U.S. landfalls. These thresholds are historically rare; only a handful of 8.5+ quakes and Cat 5 U.S. strikes have occurred in recent decades. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and ongoing global seismic and volcanic surveillance, traders are pricing the remaining months as unlikely to produce one of these specific high-impact events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$245,417End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** at 82.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the year’s largest recorded events—double earthquakes near Venezuela (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), a 7.7 quake in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia—fall well short of the 8.5 threshold, while Atlantic hurricane activity has produced no qualifying U.S. landfalls. These thresholds are historically rare; only a handful of 8.5+ quakes and Cat 5 U.S. strikes have occurred in recent decades. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and ongoing global seismic and volcanic surveillance, traders are pricing the remaining months as unlikely to produce one of these specific high-impact events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$245,417End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No** at 82.5% reflects the continued absence through early September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the USGS, NHC, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the year’s largest recorded events—double earthquakes near Venezuela (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), a 7.7 quake in Indonesia, and a 7.4 in Colombia—fall well short of the 8.5 threshold, while Atlantic hurricane activity has produced no qualifying U.S. landfalls. These thresholds are historically rare; only a handful of 8.5+ quakes and Cat 5 U.S. strikes have occurred in recent decades. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and ongoing global seismic and volcanic surveillance, traders are pricing the remaining months as unlikely to produce one of these specific high-impact events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions