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icon for Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

icon for Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$5,946 Vol.

Polymarket

3200+

$1,847 Vol.

99%

3300+

$172 Vol.

97%

3400+

$0 Vol.

92%

3500+

$299 Vol.

87%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of early September 2026, the CDC has recorded 3,134 confirmed U.S. measles cases year-to-date, the highest annual total since 1991 and already well above 2025’s full-year count of 2,289. Primary drivers include sustained domestic transmission in under-vaccinated communities, with 94% of cases occurring among individuals who are unvaccinated or have unknown status and 95% linked to outbreaks across 47 jurisdictions. Active hotspots in Pennsylvania (over 550 cases, with rapid weekly gains), Wisconsin, Ohio, and other states continue to fuel new infections via airborne spread, while 8% of cases have required hospitalization. CDC surveillance updates and state health department reports released weekly provide the key data releases that will determine final counts by September 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$5,946
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of early September 2026, the CDC has recorded 3,134 confirmed U.S. measles cases year-to-date, the highest annual total since 1991 and already well above 2025’s full-year count of 2,289. Primary drivers include sustained domestic transmission in under-vaccinated communities, with 94% of cases occurring among individuals who are unvaccinated or have unknown status and 95% linked to outbreaks across 47 jurisdictions. Active hotspots in Pennsylvania (over 550 cases, with rapid weekly gains), Wisconsin, Ohio, and other states continue to fuel new infections via airborne spread, while 8% of cases have required hospitalization. CDC surveillance updates and state health department reports released weekly provide the key data releases that will determine final counts by September 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$5,946
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2900+" at 100%, followed by "3000+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?" is "2900+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3000+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.